· Analysis updated 14:30 UTC
Juventude Évora vs Aljustrelense Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.75 expected goals for Juventude Évora and 1.25 for Aljustrelense, a combined total of 4.00. That distribution gives Juventude Évora the largest share of the 1X2 market at 69%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 69% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Juventude Évora win
68.8% probability
Expected goals
2.75 – 1.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Juventude Évora home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Aljustrelense away threat
Scored in 0 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Juventude Évora to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 69%, against 69% / 16% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.75 goals for Juventude Évora and 1.25 for Aljustrelense, a combined 4.00 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
31%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.7%
- 3–17.9%
- 2–06.9%
- 3–06.3%
- 1–16.3%
Recent form
Juventude Évora
- 2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Aljustrelense · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Lajense · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Oliveira Hospital · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Vitoria Setubal · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Portel · 1-1 (D)
Aljustrelense
- 2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Sintrense · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-08-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Lagoa · 1-1 (D)
- 2021-04-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Vitoria Setubal · 0-2 (L)
- 2021-04-03T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Moura · 2-1 (W)
- 2021-03-14T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Louletano · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2021-01-17T15:00:00.000Z · Juventude Évora 1-1 Aljustrelense (Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group H)
- 2020-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · Juventude Évora 3-1 Aljustrelense (Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group H)
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Imortal Albufeira | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 10 |
| 2 | Sintrense | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 3 | FC Serpa | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
| 4 | Juventude Évora | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| 5 | Amora | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| 6 | Real | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 |
| 7 | Lagoa | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 8 | Alcochetense | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 9 | Vitoria Setubal | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 5 |
| 10 | 1º Dezembro | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -4 | 5 |
| 11 | Lajense | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 12 | Santa Clara B | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 13 | Portel | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | -3 | 4 |
| 14 | Aljustrelense | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -9 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Juventude Évora win, at 68.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 76%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.