· Analysis updated 06:19 UTC
Juventus SC vs Metropolitano Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.83 expected goals for Juventus SC and 1.48 for Metropolitano, a combined total of 3.30. That distribution gives Juventus SC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Juventus SC win
46.0% probability
Expected goals
1.83 – 1.48
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Juventus SC home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Metropolitano away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 1 of the last 6 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.9%
- 2–19.1%
- 1–27.3%
- 1–06.7%
- 2–26.7%
Recent form
Juventus SC
- 2026-07-25T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Caravaggio · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-07-22T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Metropolitano · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-07-19T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Fluminense-SC · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-07-15T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Hercílio Luz · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-12T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Guarani de Palhoça · 1-0 (W)
Metropolitano
- 2026-10-24T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Nação · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-17T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Santa Catarina · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Barra · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-27T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Figueirense · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Blumenau · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-22T18:00:00.000Z · Juventus SC 0-2 Metropolitano (Catarinense - 2)
- 2026-05-30T18:00:00.000Z · Juventus SC 0-2 Metropolitano (Catarinense - 2)
- 2025-07-27T18:00:00.000Z · Juventus SC 0-0 Metropolitano (Catarinense - 2)
- 2024-06-09T18:00:00.000Z · Juventus SC 0-0 Metropolitano (Catarinense - 2)
- 2023-07-16T18:00:00.000Z · Juventus SC 3-0 Metropolitano (Catarinense - 2)
- 2021-04-18T19:00:00.000Z · Juventus SC 3-3 Metropolitano (Catarinense - 1)
Catarinense - 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Blumenau | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 19 |
| 2 | Metropolitano | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 19 |
| 3 | Caravaggio | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 15 | 18 |
| 4 | Hercílio Luz | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 17 |
| 5 | Tubarao | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 | Guarani de Palhoça | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 11 |
| 7 | Fluminense-SC | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 10 |
| 8 | Nação | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -9 | 9 |
| 9 | Juventus SC | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -12 | 7 |
| 10 | Jaraguá | 9 | 0 | 1 | 8 | -28 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Juventus SC win, at 46.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.