Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta · Analysis updated 15:03 UTC
Juventus U23 vs Novara Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.05 expected goals for Juventus U23 and 0.85 for Novara, a combined total of 1.90. That distribution gives Juventus U23 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 30% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
71.1% probability
Expected goals
1.05 – 0.85
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Juventus U23 home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Novara away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
68%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.7%
- 0–015.0%
- 1–113.3%
- 0–112.7%
- 2–08.2%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 13.5%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.83 (model 62.8% vs market 50.3%, edge +12.5 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.83 | 50.3% | 62.8% | 1.59 | +12.5 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.55 | 60.0% | 60.5% | 1.65 | +0.5 |
| Match result | Home | 2.25 | 39.2% | 39.5% | 2.53 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 2.80 | 31.5% | 31.6% | 3.16 | +0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.36 | 68.4% | 68.4% | 1.46 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Away | 3.00 | 29.4% | 28.9% | 3.46 | -0.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.30 | 71.6% | 71.1% | 1.41 | -0.5 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.85 | 49.7% | 37.2% | 2.69 | -12.5 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Juventus U23
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Athletic Carpi · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-08-22T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Novara · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Forli · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-25T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Pisa · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-06T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Pianese · 0-2 (L)
Novara
- 2026-10-04T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Dolomiti Bellunesi · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Ospitaletto · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Athletic Carpi · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-17T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Lumezzane · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Pergolettese · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-22T16:00:00.000Z · Juventus U23 1-0 Novara (Serie C - Girone A)
- 2025-08-17T16:00:00.000Z · Juventus U23 1-0 Novara (Coppa Italia Serie C)
- 2023-03-12T13:30:00.000Z · Juventus U23 0-2 Novara (Serie C - Girone A)
- 2022-11-06T13:30:00.000Z · Juventus U23 2-1 Novara (Serie C - Girone A)
- 2021-03-03T17:00:00.000Z · Juventus U23 2-1 Novara (Serie C - Girone A)
- 2020-11-08T14:00:00.000Z · Juventus U23 1-1 Novara (Serie C - Girone A)
- 2020-01-22T14:00:00.000Z · Juventus U23 2-2 Novara (Serie C - Girone A)
- 2019-08-26T18:45:00.000Z · Juventus U23 0-2 Novara (Serie C - Girone A)
- 2019-01-27T17:30:00.000Z · Juventus U23 1-1 Novara (Serie C - Girone A)
- 2018-09-30T18:30:00.000Z · Juventus U23 1-1 Novara (Serie C - Girone A)
Serie C - Girone A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cittadella | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 24 |
| 2 | Union Brescia | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 10 | 19 |
| 3 | Ospitaletto | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 18 |
| 4 | Arzignano Valchiampo | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 17 |
| 5 | Trento | 9 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 17 |
| 6 | Treviso | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 13 |
| 7 | Desenzano Calvina | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 13 |
| 8 | Albinoleffe | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 9 | Alcione | 9 | 2 | 6 | 1 | -1 | 12 |
| 10 | Lumezzane | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 12 |
| 11 | Pergolettese | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | -1 | 11 |
| 12 | Lecco | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 10 |
| 13 | Dolomiti Bellunesi | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 10 |
| 14 | Novara | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 9 |
| 15 | PRO Vercelli | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 9 |
| 16 | Juventus U23 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -7 | 7 |
| 17 | Athletic Carpi | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -8 | 6 |
| 18 | Folgore Caratese | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 6 |
| 19 | Giana Erminio | 9 | 0 | 5 | 4 | -4 | 5 |
| 20 | Renate | 9 | 0 | 4 | 5 | -6 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 71.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 37% and over 2.5 goals at 30%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.