Allianz Stadium · Referee Luca Zufferli, Italy · Analysis updated 20:46 UTC
Juventus vs Atalanta Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.56 expected goals for Juventus and 0.84 for Atalanta, a combined total of 2.40. That distribution gives Juventus the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Juventus win
54.3% probability
Expected goals
1.56 – 0.84
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Juventus home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Atalanta away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
46%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.2%
- 1–111.9%
- 2–011.0%
- 2–19.3%
- 0–09.1%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 8.8%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.10 (model 55.1% vs market 44.7%, edge +10.4 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.10 | 44.7% | 55.1% | 1.81 | +10.4 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.10 | 44.8% | 45.7% | 2.19 | +0.9 |
| Match result | Home | 1.70 | 54.1% | 54.3% | 1.84 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.60 | 25.5% | 25.5% | 3.92 | -0.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.18 | 79.8% | 79.8% | 1.25 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Away | 4.50 | 20.4% | 20.2% | 4.95 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 75.3% | 74.5% | 1.34 | -0.8 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.70 | 55.3% | 44.9% | 2.23 | -10.4 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Juventus
- 2026-10-11T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Cagliari · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-02T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Cremonese · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Atalanta · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-17T19:00:00.000Z · H vs NEC Nijmegen · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Sassuolo · 2-3 (L)
Atalanta
- 2026-10-12T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Venezia · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Juventus · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Cagliari · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T18:45:00.000Z · A vs AS Roma · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-31T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Bologna · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-11T18:45:00.000Z · Juventus 1-0 Atalanta (Serie A)
- 2026-02-05T20:00:00.000Z · Juventus 0-3 Atalanta (Coppa Italia)
- 2025-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · Juventus 1-1 Atalanta (Serie A)
- 2025-08-16T18:45:00.000Z · Juventus 2-1 Atalanta (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2025-03-09T19:45:00.000Z · Juventus 0-4 Atalanta (Serie A)
- 2025-01-14T19:45:00.000Z · Juventus 1-1 Atalanta (Serie A)
- 2024-05-15T19:00:00.000Z · Juventus 1-0 Atalanta (Coppa Italia)
- 2024-03-10T17:00:00.000Z · Juventus 2-2 Atalanta (Serie A)
- 2023-10-01T16:00:00.000Z · Juventus 0-0 Atalanta (Serie A)
- 2023-08-12T18:30:00.000Z · Juventus 0-0 Atalanta (Friendlies Clubs)
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 16 |
| 2 | Lazio | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 16 |
| 3 | AS Roma | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 14 |
| 4 | Cagliari | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 5 | AC Milan | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 12 |
| 6 | Juventus | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 7 | Como | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 8 | Napoli | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10 |
| 9 | Frosinone | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 10 | Atalanta | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | Sassuolo | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Torino | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 13 | Lecce | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 14 | Bologna | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 5 |
| 15 | Udinese | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Monza | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 17 | Genoa | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | Parma | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 19 | Fiorentina | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 4 |
| 20 | Venezia | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -11 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Juventus win, at 54.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.