Juventus vs Inter Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.41 expected goals for Juventus and 1.89 for Inter, a combined total of 3.30. That distribution gives Inter the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Inter win

48.7% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.41 – 1.89

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Juventus home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Inter away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Juventus win29%

Draw22%

Inter win49%

Double chance 1X

51%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

71%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals84%

Over 2.5 goals64%

Over 3.5 goals42%

Both teams to score64%

Correct score

1–19.8%
1–29.3%
0–17.0%
2–16.9%
0–26.6%

Recent form

Juventus

2026-10-18T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Lazio · 0-3 (L)
2026-10-15T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Celta Vigo · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-11T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Cagliari · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-02T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Cremonese · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Atalanta · 2-0 (W)

Inter

2026-10-21T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Shakhtar Donetsk · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-17T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Bologna · 3-1 (W)
2026-10-13T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Club Brugge KV · 3-4 (L)
2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Parma · 3-0 (W)
2026-10-03T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Lumezzane · 2-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-08-08T11:00:00.000Z · Juventus 1-2 Inter (Friendlies Clubs)
2026-02-14T19:45:00.000Z · Juventus 2-3 Inter (Serie A)
2025-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · Juventus 4-3 Inter (Serie A)
2025-02-16T19:45:00.000Z · Juventus 1-0 Inter (Serie A)
2024-10-27T16:00:00.000Z · Juventus 4-4 Inter (Serie A)
2024-02-04T19:45:00.000Z · Juventus 0-1 Inter (Serie A)
2023-11-26T19:45:00.000Z · Juventus 1-1 Inter (Serie A)
2023-04-26T19:00:00.000Z · Juventus 0-1 Inter (Coppa Italia)
2023-04-04T19:00:00.000Z · Juventus 1-1 Inter (Coppa Italia)
2023-03-19T19:45:00.000Z · Juventus 1-0 Inter (Serie A)

Serie A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Inter	7	6	1	0	12	19
2	Lazio	7	6	1	0	10	19
3	AS Roma	7	5	2	0	13	17
4	AC Milan	7	4	3	0	7	15
5	Como	7	4	2	1	5	14
6	Frosinone	7	4	1	2	4	13
7	Cagliari	7	4	1	2	-1	13
8	Juventus	7	3	2	2	1	11
9	Napoli	7	3	1	3	3	10
10	Torino	7	3	1	3	1	10
11	Atalanta	7	3	0	4	-1	9
12	Lecce	7	3	0	4	-3	9
13	Sassuolo	7	2	2	3	-2	8
14	Monza	7	2	1	4	-2	7
15	Bologna	7	1	2	4	-4	5
16	Udinese	7	1	1	5	-7	4
17	Genoa	7	1	1	5	-8	4
18	Fiorentina	7	1	1	5	-9	4
19	Parma	7	1	1	5	-9	4
20	Venezia	7	1	0	6	-10	3

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Inter win, at 48.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.

A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.