Harjun Stadion · Analysis updated 06:43 UTC
JyPK W vs EBK W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.39 expected goals for JyPK W and 1.66 for EBK W, a combined total of 3.05. That distribution gives EBK W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
67.7% probability
Expected goals
1.39 – 1.66
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
JyPK W home form
1 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates EBK W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 32% / 24% / 44% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.39 goals for JyPK W and 1.66 for EBK W, a combined 3.05 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 59% and both teams to score at 61%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
56%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.9%
- 1–29.1%
- 0–17.8%
- 2–17.6%
- 1–06.6%
Recent form
JyPK W
- 2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · A vs VIFK W · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-22T16:30:00.000Z · A vs HJS Akatemia W · 1-6 (L)
- 2026-08-16T13:00:00.000Z · H vs EBK W · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-09T13:00:00.000Z · H vs PK-35 Vantaa W · 1-6 (L)
- 2025-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · A vs PK-35 Helsinki W · 2-4 (L)
EBK W
- 2026-08-23T13:00:00.000Z · H vs VIFK W · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-16T13:00:00.000Z · A vs JyPK W · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-09T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Honka W · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Kansallinen Liiga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HJK W | 14 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 29 | 39 |
| 2 | Åland United W | 14 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 22 | 28 |
| 3 | KuPS W | 14 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 28 |
| 4 | HPS W | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 24 |
| 5 | Ilves W | 14 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 22 |
| 6 | IF Gnistan | 14 | 4 | 1 | 9 | -11 | 13 |
| 7 | PK-35 Vantaa W | 14 | 2 | 1 | 11 | -23 | 7 |
| 8 | VIFK W | 14 | 0 | 2 | 12 | -32 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.