· Analysis updated 20:30 UTC
K. Beerschot V.A. Reserve U21 vs Lierse K. U21 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.92 expected goals for K. Beerschot V.A. Reserve U21 and 0.98 for Lierse K. U21, a combined total of 3.90. That distribution gives K. Beerschot V.A. Reserve U21 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 77%, with the draw at 14%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 77% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
K. Beerschot V.A. Reserve U21 win
76.8% probability
Expected goals
2.92 – 0.98
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
K. Beerschot V.A. Reserve U21 home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates K. Beerschot V.A. Reserve U21 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 77%, against 77% / 14% / 10% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.92 goals for K. Beerschot V.A. Reserve U21 and 0.98 for Lierse K. U21, a combined 3.90 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 74% and both teams to score at 59%, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
90%
Double chance 12
86%
Double chance X2
23%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–08.6%
- 2–18.4%
- 3–08.4%
- 3–18.2%
- 4–06.2%
Recent form
K. Beerschot V.A. Reserve U21
- 2026-10-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sp. Hasselt U21 · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs RAAL La Louviere U21 · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-04T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Kortrijk U21 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-28T18:00:00.000Z · H vs RWDM U21 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-15T18:00:00.000Z · H vs RWDM U21 · 3-5 (L)
Lierse K. U21
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Reserve Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Waasland-Beveren U21 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 9 |
| 2 | Westerlo U21 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 9 |
| 3 | RFC Seraing Reserve U21 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 9 |
| 4 | Kortrijk U21 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 9 |
| 5 | RWDM U21 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 6 | RAAL La Louviere U21 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 8 |
| 7 | K. Beerschot V.A. Reserve U21 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 6 |
| 8 | Francs Borains U21 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 9 | RFC de Liege U21 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -6 | 4 |
| 10 | Lierse K. U21 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -7 | 1 |
| 11 | Sp. Hasselt U21 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -11 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is K. Beerschot V.A. Reserve U21 win, at 76.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.
A 77% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.