· Analysis updated 15:30 UTC
Køge W vs Midtjylland W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.25 expected goals for Køge W and 1.75 for Midtjylland W, a combined total of 4.00. That distribution gives Køge W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Køge W win
49.5% probability
Expected goals
2.25 – 1.75
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Køge W home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Midtjylland W away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Køge W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 20% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.25 goals for Køge W and 1.75 for Midtjylland W, a combined 4.00 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.1%
- 1–17.2%
- 2–27.1%
- 1–26.3%
- 3–16.1%
Recent form
Køge W
- 2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Nordsjælland W · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-01T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Servette Chênois W · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T11:00:00.000Z · H vs KoldingQ W · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-22T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Arsenal W · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Midtjylland W · 4-0 (W)
Midtjylland W
- 2026-08-29T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Odense Q W · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-22T11:00:00.000Z · H vs ASA Aarhus W · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-08-15T11:00:00.000Z · H vs KoldingQ W · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-04T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Fortuna Hjørring W · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-07-25T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Brøndby W · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Kvindeliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Køge W | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 25 |
| 2 | Nordsjælland W | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 20 | 21 |
| 3 | Brøndby W | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 20 |
| 4 | Fortuna Hjørring W | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 17 |
| 5 | Midtjylland W | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 17 |
| 6 | ASA Aarhus W | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 13 |
| 7 | KoldingQ W | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | -9 | 12 |
| 8 | Odense Q W | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -15 | 10 |
| 9 | FC Copenhagen W | 10 | 2 | 0 | 8 | -21 | 6 |
| 10 | AGF W | 10 | 1 | 0 | 9 | -17 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Køge W win, at 49.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 74% and over 2.5 goals at 76%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.