Herman Vanderpoortenstadion · Referee D. Van De Velde · Analysis updated 16:04 UTC
K. Lierse S.K. vs Patro Eisden Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.59 expected goals for K. Lierse S.K. and 1.12 for Patro Eisden, a combined total of 2.71. That distribution gives K. Lierse S.K. the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
K. Lierse S.K. win
48.4% probability
Expected goals
1.59 – 1.12
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
K. Lierse S.K. home form
4 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Patro Eisden away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates K. Lierse S.K. to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 25% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.59 goals for K. Lierse S.K. and 1.12 for Patro Eisden, a combined 2.71 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.8%
- 1–010.6%
- 2–19.4%
- 2–08.5%
- 0–17.4%
Recent form
K. Lierse S.K.
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Rochefort · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Beerschot VA · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Liège · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-30T17:15:00.000Z · A vs Seraing United · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-22T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Patro Eisden · 2-1 (W)
Patro Eisden
- 2026-09-26T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Roeselare Daisel · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T17:15:00.000Z · A vs Dender · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T17:15:00.000Z · H vs AS Eupen · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-04T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Beerschot VA · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-08-29T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Club Brugge II · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Challenger Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Beerschot VA | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 18 |
| 2 | Dender | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 18 |
| 3 | AS Eupen | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 15 |
| 4 | Francs Borains | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 5 | Sporting Hasselt | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 12 |
| 6 | Excelsior Virton | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 10 |
| 7 | Lokeren-Temse | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 8 | K. Lierse S.K. | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
| 9 | Club Brugge II | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 10 | KAA Gent II | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 11 | KRC Genk II | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 12 | Patro Eisden | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -4 | 6 |
| 13 | Liège | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 5 |
| 14 | Seraing United | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 2 |
| 15 | RSC Anderlecht II | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is K. Lierse S.K. win, at 48.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.