· Analysis updated 15:27 UTC
KAA Gent II vs MVV Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.18 expected goals for KAA Gent II and 1.90 for MVV, a combined total of 4.07. That distribution gives KAA Gent II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 77% for over 2.5 goals and 75% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
KAA Gent II win
45.1% probability
Expected goals
2.18 – 1.90
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
KAA Gent II home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
MVV away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates KAA Gent II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 20% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.18 goals for KAA Gent II and 1.90 for MVV, a combined 4.07 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–17.6%
- 2–27.3%
- 1–17.0%
- 1–26.7%
- 3–15.5%
Recent form
KAA Gent II
- 2026-10-11T17:15:00.000Z · H vs Seraing United · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Club Brugge II · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Dender · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T11:30:00.000Z · H vs RSC Anderlecht II · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-28T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Sporting Hasselt · 2-0 (W)
MVV
- 2026-08-28T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Jong AZ · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-25T12:30:00.000Z · A vs KRC Genk II · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-08-21T18:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Volendam · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-14T18:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Eindhoven · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-09T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Jong Utrecht · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is KAA Gent II win, at 45.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 75% and over 2.5 goals at 77%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.