Kabati Youth FC vs Migori Youth Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.37 expected goals for Kabati Youth FC and 1.16 for Migori Youth, a combined total of 2.53. That distribution gives Kabati Youth FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

68.3% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.37 – 1.16

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Kabati Youth FC home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kabati Youth FC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 27% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.37 goals for Kabati Youth FC and 1.16 for Migori Youth, a combined 2.53 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 47% and both teams to score at 51%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.

Match result (1X2)

Kabati Youth FC win42%

Draw27%

Migori Youth win32%

Double chance 1X

68%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

58%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals72%

Over 2.5 goals47%

Over 3.5 goals25%

Both teams to score51%

Correct score

1–112.6%
1–010.9%
0–19.2%
2–18.7%
0–07.9%

Recent form

Kabati Youth FC

2026-06-13T11:00:00.000Z · A vs MOFA · 1-1 (D)
2026-06-07T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Naivas · 2-1 (W)
2026-06-01T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Nairobi City Stars · 2-1 (W)
2026-05-28T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Luanda Villa · 5-0 (W)
2026-05-24T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Soy United · 1-2 (L)

Migori Youth

2026-06-13T11:00:00.000Z · A vs 3K · 1-1 (D)
2026-06-07T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Equity Bank · 2-1 (W)
2026-06-01T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Kisumu All Stars · 1-0 (W)
2026-05-27T12:00:00.000Z · H vs MCF · 2-1 (W)
2026-05-23T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Kibera Black Stars · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-04-18T12:00:00.000Z · Kabati Youth FC 1-2 Migori Youth (Super League)
2026-01-11T12:00:00.000Z · Kabati Youth FC 1-1 Migori Youth (Super League)

Super League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Sofapaka	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Nairobi City Stars	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Kariobangi Sharks	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Nzoia Sugar	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Naivas	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Kibera Black Stars	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Talanta	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Kisumu All Stars	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Fortune Sacco	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Soy United	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Equity Bank	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Luanda Villa	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	MOFA	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Kibera Soccer	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Kabati Youth FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Gucha Stars	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	Mfalme	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	Kiminini Combined	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	BB FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Spitfire FC	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.

A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.