Kaitaba Stadium · Analysis updated 17:38 UTC
Kagera Sugar vs Azam Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.08 expected goals for Kagera Sugar and 1.90 for Azam, a combined total of 2.97. That distribution gives Azam the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Azam win
56.6% probability
Expected goals
1.08 – 1.90
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kagera Sugar home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Azam away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Azam to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 21% / 22% / 57% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.08 goals for Kagera Sugar and 1.90 for Azam, a combined 2.97 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
43%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
79%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.4%
- 1–29.9%
- 0–19.7%
- 0–29.2%
- 1–36.3%
Recent form
Kagera Sugar
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Fountain Gate · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-31T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Azam · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Mashujaa · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-22T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Geita Gold · 2-6 (L)
- 2026-08-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Singida Black Stars · 1-1 (D)
Azam
- 2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Simba · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-07T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Namungo · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-31T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Kagera Sugar · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-28T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Geita Gold · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Pamba Jiji · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Ligi kuu Bara table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Young Africans | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 18 |
| 2 | Simba | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 18 |
| 3 | Azam | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 14 |
| 4 | Mashujaa | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 5 | Singida Black Stars | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10 |
| 6 | Mbeya City | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | Polisi Tanzania | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 10 |
| 8 | Dodoma Jiji | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
| 9 | Namungo | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -4 | 9 |
| 10 | Geita Gold | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 11 | JKT Tanzania | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 12 | Coastal Union | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 | Tabora United | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 6 |
| 14 | Pamba Jiji | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 4 |
| 15 | Fountain Gate | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 4 |
| 16 | Kagera Sugar | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -9 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Azam win, at 56.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.