Kagoshima United vs FC Ryukyu Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.33 expected goals for Kagoshima United and 1.08 for FC Ryukyu, a combined total of 2.40. That distribution gives Kagoshima United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

69.8% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.33 – 1.08

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Kagoshima United home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FC Ryukyu away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Kagoshima United win42%

Draw27%

FC Ryukyu win30%

Double chance 1X

70%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

58%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals69%

Over 2.5 goals43%

Over 3.5 goals22%

Both teams to score48%

Correct score

1–112.9%
1–012.0%
0–19.8%
0–09.1%
2–18.6%

Recent form

Kagoshima United

2026-10-24T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Osaka · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-21T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Kochi United · 3-1 (W)
2026-10-17T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Ehime FC · 4-2 (W)
2026-10-11T04:00:00.000Z · A vs Matsumoto Yamaga · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-07T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Cerezo Osaka · 0-2 (L)

FC Ryukyu

2026-10-24T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Nara Club · 3-1 (W)
2026-10-21T04:00:00.000Z · A vs Parceiro Nagano · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-17T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Tochigi SC · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-10T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Thespakusatsu Gunma · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-03T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Kanazawa · 0-2 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-09-05T10:00:00.000Z · Kagoshima United 2-1 FC Ryukyu (J3 League)
2026-05-03T09:00:00.000Z · Kagoshima United 1-1 FC Ryukyu (J2/J3 League)
2026-02-15T05:00:00.000Z · Kagoshima United 3-1 FC Ryukyu (J2/J3 League)
2025-11-23T04:00:00.000Z · Kagoshima United 1-1 FC Ryukyu (J3 League)
2025-05-06T09:00:00.000Z · Kagoshima United 2-1 FC Ryukyu (J3 League)
2023-11-11T08:00:00.000Z · Kagoshima United 0-2 FC Ryukyu (J3 League)
2023-05-14T04:30:00.000Z · Kagoshima United 2-0 FC Ryukyu (J3 League)
2019-09-07T10:00:00.000Z · Kagoshima United 1-2 FC Ryukyu (J2 League)
2019-04-21T04:00:00.000Z · Kagoshima United 1-0 FC Ryukyu (J2 League)
2018-09-22T10:00:00.000Z · Kagoshima United 0-4 FC Ryukyu (J3 League)

J3 League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Kagoshima United	13	9	2	2	11	29
2	Ehime FC	13	8	2	3	11	26
3	Renofa Yamaguchi	13	8	2	3	10	26
4	Osaka	13	6	5	2	10	23
5	Roasso Kumamoto	13	6	5	2	8	23
6	Nara Club	13	7	2	4	2	23
7	FC Gifu	13	7	1	5	11	22
8	Sagamihara	13	6	4	3	7	22
9	FC Ryukyu	13	6	2	5	1	20
10	Kanazawa	13	5	2	6	4	17
11	Parceiro Nagano	13	5	2	6	-2	17
12	Kitakyushu	13	4	4	5	-3	16
13	Gainare Tottori	13	4	3	6	-10	15
14	Fukushima United	13	4	2	7	-3	14
15	Matsumoto Yamaga	13	3	5	5	-3	14
16	Tochigi SC	13	3	5	5	-4	14
17	Biwako Shiga	13	4	2	7	-7	14
18	Thespakusatsu Gunma	13	4	1	8	-10	13
19	Kamatamare Sanuki	13	2	2	9	-10	8
20	Kochi United	13	1	3	9	-23	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 69.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.

A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.