Shiranami Stadium · Analysis updated 07:03 UTC
Kagoshima United vs Fukushima United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.08 expected goals for Kagoshima United and 1.38 for Fukushima United, a combined total of 4.46. That distribution gives Kagoshima United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 71%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 82% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 71% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Kagoshima United win
71.4% probability
Expected goals
3.08 – 1.38
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kagoshima United home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Fukushima United away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kagoshima United to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 71%, against 71% / 15% / 14% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.08 goals for Kagoshima United and 1.38 for Fukushima United, a combined 4.46 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
86%
Double chance 12
86%
Double chance X2
29%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–17.8%
- 2–17.6%
- 4–16.0%
- 3–05.6%
- 2–05.5%
Recent form
Kagoshima United
- 2026-10-24T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Osaka · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-21T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Kochi United · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-17T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Ehime FC · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-10-11T04:00:00.000Z · A vs Matsumoto Yamaga · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-07T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Cerezo Osaka · 0-2 (L)
Fukushima United
- 2026-10-04T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Kagoshima United · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-29T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Mito Hollyhock · 0-7 (L)
- 2026-09-26T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Parceiro Nagano · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-18T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Osaka · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Roasso Kumamoto · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
J3 League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kagoshima United | 12 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 29 |
| 2 | Ehime FC | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 26 |
| 3 | Renofa Yamaguchi | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 23 |
| 4 | Nara Club | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 23 |
| 5 | FC Gifu | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 22 |
| 6 | Sagamihara | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 21 |
| 7 | Osaka | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 20 |
| 8 | Roasso Kumamoto | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 20 |
| 9 | Parceiro Nagano | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 17 |
| 10 | FC Ryukyu | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 17 |
| 11 | Kanazawa | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 14 |
| 12 | Matsumoto Yamaga | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | -1 | 14 |
| 13 | Biwako Shiga | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -3 | 14 |
| 14 | Gainare Tottori | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 14 |
| 15 | Tochigi SC | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -4 | 13 |
| 16 | Kitakyushu | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -5 | 13 |
| 17 | Fukushima United | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 11 |
| 18 | Thespakusatsu Gunma | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | -11 | 10 |
| 19 | Kamatamare Sanuki | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -9 | 8 |
| 20 | Kochi United | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | -23 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Kagoshima United win, at 71.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 71% and over 2.5 goals at 82%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.