Shiranami Stadium · Analysis updated 01:10 UTC
Kagoshima United vs Kochi United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.91 expected goals for Kagoshima United and 0.56 for Kochi United, a combined total of 3.47. That distribution gives Kagoshima United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 85%, with the draw at 11%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 85% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Kagoshima United win
84.8% probability
Expected goals
2.91 – 0.56
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kagoshima United home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Kochi United away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kagoshima United to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 85%, against 85% / 11% / 5% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.91 goals for Kagoshima United and 0.56 for Kochi United, a combined 3.47 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
96%
Double chance 12
89%
Double chance X2
15%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–013.2%
- 3–012.8%
- 4–09.3%
- 1–09.0%
- 2–17.4%
Recent form
Kagoshima United
- 2026-10-24T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Osaka · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-21T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Kochi United · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-17T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Ehime FC · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-10-11T04:00:00.000Z · A vs Matsumoto Yamaga · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-07T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Cerezo Osaka · 0-2 (L)
Kochi United
- 2026-10-25T04:00:00.000Z · A vs Gainare Tottori · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-21T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Kagoshima United · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-18T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Renofa Yamaguchi · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Parceiro Nagano · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Kitakyushu · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
J3 League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kagoshima United | 13 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 29 |
| 2 | Ehime FC | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 26 |
| 3 | Renofa Yamaguchi | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 26 |
| 4 | Osaka | 13 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 23 |
| 5 | Roasso Kumamoto | 13 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 23 |
| 6 | Nara Club | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 23 |
| 7 | FC Gifu | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 22 |
| 8 | Sagamihara | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 22 |
| 9 | FC Ryukyu | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 20 |
| 10 | Kanazawa | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 17 |
| 11 | Parceiro Nagano | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | -2 | 17 |
| 12 | Kitakyushu | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -3 | 16 |
| 13 | Gainare Tottori | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | -10 | 15 |
| 14 | Fukushima United | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | -3 | 14 |
| 15 | Matsumoto Yamaga | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -3 | 14 |
| 16 | Tochigi SC | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -4 | 14 |
| 17 | Biwako Shiga | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | -7 | 14 |
| 18 | Thespakusatsu Gunma | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | -10 | 13 |
| 19 | Kamatamare Sanuki | 13 | 2 | 2 | 9 | -10 | 8 |
| 20 | Kochi United | 13 | 1 | 3 | 9 | -23 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Kagoshima United win, at 84.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 85% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.