Shiranami Stadium · Analysis updated 18:06 UTC
Kagoshima United vs Roasso Kumamoto Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.93 expected goals for Kagoshima United and 1.10 for Roasso Kumamoto, a combined total of 2.03. That distribution gives Roasso Kumamoto the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 33% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
69.8% probability
Expected goals
0.93 – 1.10
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kagoshima United home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Roasso Kumamoto away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Roasso Kumamoto to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 30% / 31% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.93 goals for Kagoshima United and 1.10 for Roasso Kumamoto, a combined 2.03 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–114.5%
- 1–113.4%
- 0–013.2%
- 1–012.2%
- 0–28.0%
Recent form
Kagoshima United
- 2026-10-24T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Osaka · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-21T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Kochi United · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-17T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Ehime FC · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-10-11T04:00:00.000Z · A vs Matsumoto Yamaga · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-07T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Cerezo Osaka · 0-2 (L)
Roasso Kumamoto
- 2026-08-22T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Parceiro Nagano · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-19T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Gainare Tottori · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-15T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Tochigi SC · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-08T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Sagamihara · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-07-19T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Yokohama F. Marinos · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
J2/J3 League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vegalta Sendai | 18 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 17 | 43 |
| 2 | Blaublitz Akita | 18 | 11 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 35 |
| 3 | Shonan Bellmare | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 31 |
| 4 | Yokohama FC | 18 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 29 |
| 5 | Sagamihara | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | -2 | 28 |
| 6 | Thespakusatsu Gunma | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | -10 | 23 |
| 7 | Montedio Yamagata | 18 | 6 | 2 | 10 | -5 | 22 |
| 8 | Tochigi City | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | -13 | 21 |
| 9 | Vanraure Hachinohe | 18 | 4 | 6 | 8 | -4 | 20 |
| 10 | Tochigi SC | 18 | 4 | 5 | 9 | -5 | 18 |
| 1 | Ventforet Kofu | 18 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 35 |
| 2 | Consadole Sapporo | 18 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 31 |
| 3 | Iwaki | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 31 |
| 4 | Omiya Ardija | 18 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 30 |
| 5 | Fujieda MYFC | 18 | 6 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 30 |
| 6 | FC Gifu | 18 | 8 | 3 | 7 | -2 | 28 |
| 7 | Matsumoto Yamaga | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 10 | 26 |
| 8 | Jubilo Iwata | 18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | -7 | 25 |
| 9 | Fukushima United | 18 | 4 | 4 | 10 | -13 | 18 |
| 10 | Parceiro Nagano | 18 | 3 | 5 | 10 | -18 | 16 |
| 1 | Kataller Toyama | 18 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 13 | 38 |
| 2 | Albirex Niigata | 18 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 35 |
| 3 | Tokushima Vortis | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 32 |
| 4 | Kochi United | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 30 |
| 5 | Ehime FC | 18 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 28 |
| 6 | Kanazawa | 18 | 5 | 7 | 6 | -6 | 27 |
| 7 | Nara Club | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | -9 | 21 |
| 8 | Osaka | 18 | 3 | 8 | 7 | -3 | 20 |
| 9 | Imabari | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | -4 | 20 |
| 10 | Kamatamare Sanuki | 18 | 5 | 3 | 10 | -18 | 19 |
| 1 | Tegevajaro Miyazaki | 18 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 24 | 47 |
| 2 | Kagoshima United | 18 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 33 |
| 3 | Sagan Tosu | 18 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 10 | 32 |
| 4 | Renofa Yamaguchi | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 29 |
| 5 | Roasso Kumamoto | 18 | 8 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 27 |
| 6 | Gainare Tottori | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | -4 | 27 |
| 7 | Oita Trinita | 18 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 22 |
| 8 | Biwako Shiga | 18 | 6 | 2 | 10 | -13 | 21 |
| 9 | FC Ryukyu | 18 | 2 | 7 | 9 | -12 | 17 |
| 10 | Kitakyushu | 18 | 4 | 3 | 11 | -15 | 15 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 69.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 33%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.