Fred Wright Oval · Analysis updated 01:39 UTC
Kahibah vs Belmont Swansea Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.80 expected goals for Kahibah and 2.25 for Belmont Swansea, a combined total of 4.05. That distribution gives Belmont Swansea the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 77% for over 2.5 goals and 75% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Belmont Swansea win
48.5% probability
Expected goals
1.80 – 2.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kahibah home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Belmont Swansea away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
52%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
69%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–27.9%
- 2–27.1%
- 1–17.1%
- 2–16.4%
- 1–36.0%
Recent form
Kahibah
- 2026-09-05T04:00:00.000Z · H vs Newcastle Croatia FC · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T04:00:00.000Z · H vs New Lambton · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-22T06:00:00.000Z · A vs New Lambton · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-16T04:00:00.000Z · H vs Cooks Hill United · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-08-12T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Maitland · 1-2 (L)
Belmont Swansea
- 2026-08-23T03:00:00.000Z · A vs Edgeworth Eagles · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-16T04:00:00.000Z · H vs Adamstown Rosebuds · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-08T06:30:00.000Z · H vs Lambton Jaffas · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-02T03:00:00.000Z · A vs Edgeworth Eagles · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-07-26T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Kahibah · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-26T05:00:00.000Z · Kahibah 3-1 Belmont Swansea (Northern NSW NPL)
- 2026-04-26T05:00:00.000Z · Kahibah 3-6 Belmont Swansea (Northern NSW NPL)
- 2024-07-10T10:00:00.000Z · Kahibah 0-2 Belmont Swansea (NNSW League 1)
- 2024-04-24T10:00:00.000Z · Kahibah 1-2 Belmont Swansea (NNSW League 1)
- 2024-03-03T00:00:00.000Z · Kahibah 1-4 Belmont Swansea (NNSW League 1)
Northern NSW NPL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Broadmeadow Magic | 22 | 15 | 4 | 3 | 36 | 49 |
| 2 | Maitland | 22 | 13 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 42 |
| 3 | Weston Bears | 22 | 12 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 41 |
| 4 | Edgeworth Eagles | 22 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 10 | 39 |
| 5 | Belmont Swansea | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 35 |
| 6 | Cooks Hill United | 22 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 33 |
| 7 | Valentine | 22 | 7 | 5 | 10 | -17 | 26 |
| 8 | Lambton Jaffas | 22 | 7 | 4 | 11 | 5 | 25 |
| 9 | Adamstown Rosebuds | 22 | 6 | 6 | 10 | -11 | 24 |
| 10 | Hamilton Olympic | 22 | 5 | 6 | 11 | -1 | 21 |
| 11 | Kahibah | 22 | 6 | 2 | 14 | -18 | 20 |
| 12 | Charlestown City Blues | 22 | 4 | 2 | 16 | -37 | 14 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Belmont Swansea win, at 48.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 75% and over 2.5 goals at 77%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.