· Analysis updated 14:01 UTC
Kahraba Ismailia vs AL Nasr SC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.45 expected goals for Kahraba Ismailia and 1.08 for AL Nasr SC, a combined total of 2.53. That distribution gives Kahraba Ismailia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Kahraba Ismailia win
45.4% probability
Expected goals
1.45 – 1.08
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kahraba Ismailia home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
AL Nasr SC away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kahraba Ismailia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 26% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.45 goals for Kahraba Ismailia and 1.08 for AL Nasr SC, a combined 2.53 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.5%
- 1–011.5%
- 2–19.0%
- 0–18.6%
- 2–08.3%
Recent form
Kahraba Ismailia
- 2026-10-02T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Mega Sport · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-24T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Pharco · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-18T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Baladiyyat Al Mehalla · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-10T13:30:00.000Z · H vs El Dakhleya · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-03T13:30:00.000Z · A vs El Mansura · 0-2 (L)
AL Nasr SC
- 2026-10-15T12:30:00.000Z · A vs El Mansura · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-08T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Proxy · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-01T12:30:00.000Z · A vs La Viena FC · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-24T13:30:00.000Z · H vs El Seka El Hadid · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-17T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Tanta SC · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Second League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Masar | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 22 |
| 2 | Haras El Hodood | 10 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 8 | 20 |
| 3 | Itesalat | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 19 |
| 4 | Pharco | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 19 |
| 5 | Kahraba Ismailia | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 18 |
| 6 | Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 18 |
| 7 | AL Nasr SC | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 17 |
| 8 | Tersana | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 17 |
| 9 | El Mansura | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 17 |
| 10 | El Seka El Hadid | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 11 | Baladiyyat Al Mehalla | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 12 |
| 12 | Team | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 11 |
| 13 | El Entag EL Harby | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 10 |
| 14 | Ismaily SC | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -4 | 10 |
| 15 | Tanta SC | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -4 | 10 |
| 16 | El Dakhleya | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -6 | 10 |
| 17 | Proxy | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -7 | 8 |
| 18 | La Viena FC | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -6 | 7 |
| 19 | Dayrout | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -16 | 6 |
| 20 | Mega Sport | 10 | 0 | 3 | 7 | -11 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Kahraba Ismailia win, at 45.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.