· Analysis updated 09:27 UTC
Kahramanmaraşspor vs Karaköprü Belediyespor Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.44 expected goals for Kahramanmaraşspor and 1.49 for Karaköprü Belediyespor, a combined total of 2.93. That distribution gives Karaköprü Belediyespor the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
63.4% probability
Expected goals
1.44 – 1.49
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kahramanmaraşspor home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Karaköprü Belediyespor away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Karaköprü Belediyespor to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 37% / 25% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.44 goals for Kahramanmaraşspor and 1.49 for Karaköprü Belediyespor, a combined 2.93 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
63%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.5%
- 1–28.5%
- 2–18.2%
- 0–18.0%
- 1–07.7%
Recent form
Kahramanmaraşspor
- 2026-04-18T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Diyarbekirspor · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-04-12T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Talasgücü Belediyespor · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-04-05T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Mazıdağı Fosfatspor · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-03-29T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Kırşehir Belediyespor · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-03-25T11:00:00.000Z · A vs 12 Bingölspor · 1-1 (D)
Karaköprü Belediyespor
- 2026-10-11T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Bitlis Özgüzelderespor · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-07T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Hatayspor · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Yeni Malatyaspor · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Yozgat Bld Bozokspor · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Adanaspor · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. Lig - Group 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nilüfer Belediye | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 18 |
| 2 | Etimesgut SK | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 17 |
| 3 | Balıkesirspor | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 16 |
| 4 | Bursa Yıldırımspor | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 16 |
| 5 | Eskişehirspor | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 15 |
| 6 | Anadolu Üniversitesi | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 15 |
| 7 | Ayvalikgucu | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 15 |
| 8 | Bigaspor | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 9 | Karsiyaka | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 12 |
| 10 | Gaziemirspor | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 10 |
| 11 | Altay | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -7 | 9 |
| 12 | Söke 1970 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 13 | Uşak Spor | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 14 | Bucaspor 1928 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -6 | 6 |
| 15 | Denizli İYG | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -8 | 6 |
| 16 | Kepezspor | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -8 | 5 |
| 17 | Alanya 1221 FK | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -13 | 4 |
| 18 | Akşehirspor | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | -15 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 63.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.