Kairat Almaty vs Altay Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.40 expected goals for Kairat Almaty and 0.60 for Altay, a combined total of 3.01. That distribution gives Kairat Almaty the largest share of the 1X2 market at 77%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 77% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Kairat Almaty win

77.3% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.40 – 0.60

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Kairat Almaty home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Altay away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kairat Almaty to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 77%, against 77% / 15% / 8% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.40 goals for Kairat Almaty and 0.60 for Altay, a combined 3.01 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Kairat Almaty win77%

Draw15%

Altay win8%

Double chance 1X

93%

Double chance 12

85%

Double chance X2

23%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals80%

Over 2.5 goals58%

Over 3.5 goals35%

Both teams to score41%

Correct score

2–014.3%
1–011.9%
3–011.4%
2–18.6%
1–17.2%

Recent form

Kairat Almaty

2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Zhetysu · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Astana · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs FK Tobol Kostanay · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-09T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Zhenys · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Kaspiy · 3-0 (W)

Altay

2026-09-18T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Irtysh · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Ulytau · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-06T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Kaisar · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-29T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Zhenys · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Ordabasy · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Kairat Almaty	26	18	6	2	33	60
2	Ordabasy	25	18	4	3	30	58
3	FC Astana	25	13	6	6	15	45
4	Aktobe	27	13	6	8	9	45
5	Okzhetpes	26	13	6	7	6	45
6	Yelimay Semey	26	10	8	8	0	38
7	FK Tobol Kostanay	27	11	4	12	-1	37
8	Zhenys	27	8	8	11	-7	32
9	Ulytau	26	8	8	10	-8	32
10	Kaspiy	26	8	5	13	-9	29
11	Kyzyl-Zhar	27	7	7	13	-9	28
12	Atyrau	25	5	11	9	-6	26
13	Irtysh	26	6	8	12	-10	26
14	Kaisar	26	4	12	10	-11	24
15	Altay	26	5	8	13	-13	23
16	Zhetysu	27	5	7	15	-19	22

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Kairat Almaty win, at 77.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.

A 77% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.