Almaty Central Stadium · Referee S. Karabaev · Analysis updated 04:26 UTC
Kairat Almaty vs FK Tobol Kostanay Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.93 expected goals for Kairat Almaty and 0.78 for FK Tobol Kostanay, a combined total of 2.70. That distribution gives Kairat Almaty the largest share of the 1X2 market at 65%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 65% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Kairat Almaty win
64.5% probability
Expected goals
1.93 – 0.78
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kairat Almaty home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FK Tobol Kostanay away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 9 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
86%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
36%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.9%
- 2–012.5%
- 1–110.0%
- 2–19.7%
- 3–08.0%
Recent form
Kairat Almaty
- 2026-10-25T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Aktobe · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-22T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Panathinaikos · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Irtysh · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-10-15T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Riga · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Zhetysu · 1-0 (W)
FK Tobol Kostanay
- 2026-10-24T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Zhetysu · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Zhenys · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Astana · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Yelimay Semey · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kairat Almaty · 4-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · Kairat Almaty 1-4 FK Tobol Kostanay (Premier League)
- 2026-04-11T13:00:00.000Z · Kairat Almaty 1-1 FK Tobol Kostanay (Premier League)
- 2026-02-28T12:00:00.000Z · Kairat Almaty 2-2 FK Tobol Kostanay (Super Cup)
- 2025-07-26T13:00:00.000Z · Kairat Almaty 3-1 FK Tobol Kostanay (Premier League)
- 2025-04-27T12:00:00.000Z · Kairat Almaty 2-1 FK Tobol Kostanay (Premier League)
- 2024-08-25T13:00:00.000Z · Kairat Almaty 2-2 FK Tobol Kostanay (Premier League)
- 2024-06-15T15:00:00.000Z · Kairat Almaty 0-1 FK Tobol Kostanay (Premier League)
- 2023-08-13T13:00:00.000Z · Kairat Almaty 2-1 FK Tobol Kostanay (Premier League)
- 2023-05-06T11:00:00.000Z · Kairat Almaty 3-2 FK Tobol Kostanay (Premier League)
- 2022-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · Kairat Almaty 2-3 FK Tobol Kostanay (Premier League)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ordabasy | 29 | 21 | 5 | 3 | 38 | 68 |
| 2 | Kairat Almaty | 29 | 19 | 7 | 3 | 37 | 64 |
| 3 | FC Astana | 29 | 15 | 8 | 6 | 17 | 53 |
| 4 | Okzhetpes | 29 | 15 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 51 |
| 5 | Aktobe | 29 | 13 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 46 |
| 6 | Yelimay Semey | 29 | 12 | 9 | 8 | 2 | 45 |
| 7 | FK Tobol Kostanay | 29 | 12 | 5 | 12 | 1 | 41 |
| 8 | Ulytau | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | -8 | 35 |
| 9 | Zhenys | 29 | 8 | 9 | 12 | -9 | 33 |
| 10 | Kaspiy | 29 | 9 | 6 | 14 | -11 | 33 |
| 11 | Kyzyl-Zhar | 29 | 8 | 6 | 15 | -12 | 30 |
| 12 | Irtysh | 29 | 7 | 8 | 14 | -15 | 29 |
| 13 | Altay | 29 | 6 | 9 | 14 | -11 | 27 |
| 14 | Atyrau | 29 | 5 | 12 | 12 | -11 | 27 |
| 15 | Zhetysu | 29 | 6 | 8 | 15 | -18 | 26 |
| 16 | Kaisar | 29 | 4 | 13 | 12 | -15 | 25 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Kairat Almaty win, at 64.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.