Kairat Almaty vs Irtysh Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.67 expected goals for Kairat Almaty and 0.98 for Irtysh, a combined total of 2.65. That distribution gives Kairat Almaty the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Kairat Almaty win

53.8% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.67 – 0.98

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Kairat Almaty home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Irtysh away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 7 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Kairat Almaty win54%

Draw24%

Irtysh win22%

Double chance 1X

78%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

46%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals74%

Over 2.5 goals49%

Over 3.5 goals28%

Both teams to score51%

Correct score

1–011.8%
1–111.5%
2–09.9%
2–19.7%
0–07.1%

Recent form

Kairat Almaty

2026-10-15T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Riga · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Zhetysu · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Astana · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs FK Tobol Kostanay · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-09T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Zhenys · 3-0 (W)

Irtysh

2026-09-18T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Altay · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-13T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Okzhetpes · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Zhetysu · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-30T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Aktobe · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-16T12:00:00.000Z · H vs FK Tobol Kostanay · 0-2 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-05-02T12:00:00.000Z · Kairat Almaty 1-0 Irtysh (Premier League)
2019-11-03T09:00:00.000Z · Kairat Almaty 0-5 Irtysh (Premier League)
2019-08-04T13:00:00.000Z · Kairat Almaty 2-0 Irtysh (Premier League)
2019-05-19T13:00:00.000Z · Kairat Almaty 2-1 Irtysh (Premier League)
2018-10-27T09:00:00.000Z · Kairat Almaty 0-1 Irtysh (Premier League)
2018-07-06T13:00:00.000Z · Kairat Almaty 4-0 Irtysh (Premier League)
2018-06-27T13:00:00.000Z · Kairat Almaty 1-3 Irtysh (Cup)

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Ordabasy	26	19	4	3	33	61
2	Kairat Almaty	26	18	6	2	33	60
3	FC Astana	26	14	6	6	16	48
4	Aktobe	27	13	6	8	9	45
5	Okzhetpes	27	13	6	8	4	45
6	Yelimay Semey	27	11	8	8	1	41
7	FK Tobol Kostanay	27	11	4	12	-1	37
8	Ulytau	27	9	8	10	-6	35
9	Zhenys	27	8	8	11	-7	32
10	Kaspiy	27	9	5	13	-8	32
11	Kyzyl-Zhar	27	7	7	13	-9	28
12	Atyrau	26	5	11	10	-7	26
13	Irtysh	27	6	8	13	-11	26
14	Kaisar	27	4	12	11	-14	24
15	Altay	27	5	8	14	-14	23
16	Zhetysu	27	5	7	15	-19	22

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Kairat Almaty win, at 53.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.

A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.