Kairat Almaty vs Levski Sofia Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.33 expected goals for Kairat Almaty and 1.10 for Levski Sofia, a combined total of 2.43. That distribution gives Kairat Almaty the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws roughly 58% of the time.

Model pick

Kairat Almaty or Draw

69.1% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.33 – 1.10

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Kairat Almaty win42%

Draw27%

Levski Sofia win31%

Double chance 1X

69%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

58%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals70%

Over 2.5 goals44%

Over 3.5 goals23%

Both teams to score49%

Correct score

1–112.9%
1–011.7%
0–19.7%
0–08.8%
2–18.5%

Why the model likes this

Kairat Almaty home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kairat Almaty to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 27% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.33 goals for Kairat Almaty and 1.10 for Levski Sofia, a combined 2.43 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 44% and both teams to score at 49%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.

Recent form

Kairat Almaty

2026-08-15T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Ulytau · 3-1 (W)
2026-08-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Levski Sofia · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-04T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Levski Sofia · 0-1 (L)
2026-07-29T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Omonia Nicosia · 1-0 (W)
2026-07-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ordabasy · 2-1 (W)

Levski Sofia

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.