Kaisar vs Atyrau Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for Kaisar and 0.83 for Atyrau, a combined total of 1.83. That distribution gives Kaisar the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 28% for over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

70.9% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.00 – 0.83

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Kaisar home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Atyrau away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Kaisar win39%

Draw32%

Atyrau win29%

Double chance 1X

71%

Double chance 12

68%

Double chance X2

61%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals55%

Over 2.5 goals28%

Over 3.5 goals11%

Both teams to score36%

Correct score

0–016.1%
1–016.1%
0–113.3%
1–113.3%
2–08.1%

Recent form

Kaisar

2026-08-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Zhenys · 2-3 (L)
2026-08-15T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Aktobe · 1-2 (L)
2026-07-29T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Zhenys · 3-1 (W)
2026-07-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Yelimay Semey · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-18T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Kaspiy · 1-1 (D)

Atyrau

2026-10-18T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Altay · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-14T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Yelimay Semey · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Zhenys · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-17T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Ordabasy · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Kaisar · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-04-11T10:00:00.000Z · Kaisar 0-2 Atyrau (Premier League)
2025-08-23T14:00:00.000Z · Kaisar 0-0 Atyrau (Premier League)
2025-05-25T13:00:00.000Z · Kaisar 2-1 Atyrau (Premier League)
2024-08-03T13:00:00.000Z · Kaisar 2-2 Atyrau (Premier League)
2024-04-20T09:00:00.000Z · Kaisar 1-1 Atyrau (Premier League)
2023-10-22T11:00:00.000Z · Kaisar 1-0 Atyrau (Premier League)
2023-03-10T10:00:00.000Z · Kaisar 1-2 Atyrau (Premier League)
2021-06-28T15:00:00.000Z · Kaisar 1-1 Atyrau (Premier League)
2021-04-18T13:00:00.000Z · Kaisar 1-1 Atyrau (Premier League)
2019-10-25T10:00:00.000Z · Kaisar 0-1 Atyrau (Premier League)

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Ordabasy	29	21	5	3	38	68
2	Kairat Almaty	28	19	6	3	37	63
3	FC Astana	28	15	7	6	17	52
4	Okzhetpes	29	15	6	8	8	51
5	Aktobe	28	13	6	9	7	45
6	Yelimay Semey	28	12	8	8	2	44
7	FK Tobol Kostanay	29	12	5	12	1	41
8	Ulytau	29	9	8	12	-8	35
9	Zhenys	29	8	9	12	-9	33
10	Kaspiy	29	9	6	14	-11	33
11	Kyzyl-Zhar	29	8	6	15	-12	30
12	Atyrau	28	5	12	11	-10	27
13	Altay	28	6	8	14	-11	26
14	Irtysh	28	6	8	14	-16	26
15	Zhetysu	29	6	8	15	-18	26
16	Kaisar	28	4	12	12	-15	24

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 70.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 36% and over 2.5 goals at 28%.

A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.