Dimotiko Stadio Paralias · Referee Eleftherios Katopis · Analysis updated 14:57 UTC
Kalamata vs OFI Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.18 expected goals for Kalamata and 1.48 for OFI, a combined total of 2.65. That distribution gives OFI the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
69.9% probability
Expected goals
1.18 – 1.48
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kalamata home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
OFI away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates OFI to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 30% / 26% / 44% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.18 goals for Kalamata and 1.48 for OFI, a combined 2.65 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
56%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.2%
- 0–110.4%
- 1–29.0%
- 1–08.3%
- 0–27.7%
Recent form
Kalamata
- 2026-09-20T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Panathinaikos · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-17T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Larisa · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Volos NFC · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Atromitos · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-01T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Volos NFC · 2-2 (D)
OFI
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Asteras Tripolis · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-17T16:45:00.000Z · H vs 1899 Hoffenheim · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Olympiakos Piraeus · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-09T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Nestos Chrisoupolis · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Kifisia · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Super League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Panathinaikos | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 15 |
| 2 | AEK Athens FC | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 14 |
| 3 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 4 | PAOK | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 12 |
| 5 | Aris Thessalonikis | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 10 |
| 6 | OFI | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 7 | Iraklis 1908 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
| 8 | Panetolikos | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 9 | Kifisia | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
| 10 | Kalamata | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 7 |
| 11 | Asteras Tripolis | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 5 |
| 12 | Atromitos | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 2 |
| 13 | Levadiakos | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -11 | 1 |
| 14 | Volos NFC | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 69.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.