Kalisz vs Jastrzębie Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.88 expected goals for Kalisz and 1.23 for Jastrzębie, a combined total of 3.10. That distribution gives Kalisz the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Kalisz win

52.6% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.88 – 1.23

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Kalisz home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Jastrzębie away threat
Scored in 0 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kalisz to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 23% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.88 goals for Kalisz and 1.23 for Jastrzębie, a combined 3.10 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Kalisz win53%

Draw23%

Jastrzębie win25%

Double chance 1X

75%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

48%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals82%

Over 2.5 goals60%

Over 3.5 goals38%

Both teams to score60%

Correct score

1–110.3%
2–19.7%
1–08.4%
2–07.9%
1–26.3%

Recent form

Kalisz

2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Polonia Środa · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Lipno Stęszew · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Lech Poznań II · 2-4 (L)
2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Stargard Szczeciński · 0-5 (L)
2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Kluczevia Stargard · 1-0 (W)

Jastrzębie

2026-08-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Pogoń Siedlce · 0-3 (L)
2026-05-30T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Śląsk Wrocław II · 0-3 (L)
2026-05-23T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Stal Stalowa Wola · 0-3 (L)
2026-05-16T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Rekord Bielsko-Biała · 0-3 (L)
2026-05-09T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Podbeskidzie · 0-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

II Liga - East table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Znicz Pruszków	13	10	2	1	15	32
2	Tychy 71	13	7	6	0	12	27
3	Górnik Łęczna	13	7	2	4	13	23
4	Olimpia Grudziądz	13	6	4	3	-1	22
5	Podhale Nowy Targ	13	5	5	3	2	20
6	Zawisza Bydgoszcz	13	5	4	4	4	19
7	Sandecja Nowy Sącz	13	5	4	4	3	19
8	Stal Stalowa Wola	13	6	1	6	-2	19
9	Rekord Bielsko-Biała	13	5	3	5	3	18
10	Hutnik Kraków	13	5	3	5	2	18
11	Chojniczanka Chojnice	13	5	3	5	0	18
12	Avia Świdnik	13	5	2	6	-4	17
13	Legia Warszawa II	13	5	1	7	3	16
14	Lechia Zielona Góra	13	4	4	5	-4	16
15	Sokół Kleczew	13	2	6	5	-11	12
16	Śląsk Wrocław II	13	3	1	9	-6	10
17	Świt Skolwin	13	2	3	8	-16	9
18	Resovia Rzeszów	13	0	6	7	-13	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Kalisz win, at 52.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.

A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.