Kalisz vs Polonia Środa Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.95 expected goals for Kalisz and 2.00 for Polonia Środa, a combined total of 3.95. That distribution gives Polonia Środa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

61.3% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.95 – 2.00

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Kalisz home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Polonia Środa away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Polonia Środa to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 39% / 21% / 41% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.95 goals for Kalisz and 2.00 for Polonia Środa, a combined 3.95 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Kalisz win39%

Draw21%

Polonia Środa win41%

Double chance 1X

59%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

61%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals90%

Over 2.5 goals75%

Over 3.5 goals56%

Both teams to score74%

Correct score

1–17.5%
1–27.5%
2–17.3%
2–27.3%
1–35.0%

Recent form

Kalisz

2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Polonia Środa · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Lipno Stęszew · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Lech Poznań II · 2-4 (L)
2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Stargard Szczeciński · 0-5 (L)
2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Kluczevia Stargard · 1-0 (W)

Polonia Środa

2026-09-26T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Elana Toruń · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Noteć Czarnków · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Unia Swarzędz · 4-3 (W)
2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Grom Nowy Staw · 4-4 (D)
2026-09-01T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Sandecja Nowy Sącz · 3-2 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

III Liga - Group 2 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Polonia Środa	14	10	4	0	20	34
2	Luzino	14	9	1	4	18	28
3	Wda Świecie	14	8	3	3	4	27
4	Kluczevia Stargard	13	7	2	4	2	23
5	Stargard Szczeciński	14	6	4	4	9	22
6	Lech Poznań II	13	6	3	4	2	21
7	Noteć Czarnków	14	6	2	6	1	20
8	Bałtyk Koszalin	14	5	4	5	2	19
9	Elana Toruń	14	5	4	5	-2	19
10	Unia Swarzędz	14	5	3	6	3	18
11	Gedania Gdansk	14	4	6	4	1	18
12	Kalisz	14	4	6	4	-2	18
13	Grom Nowy Staw	14	5	1	8	-1	16
14	Flota Świnoujście	14	4	3	7	-7	15
15	Chemik Bydgoszcz	14	2	6	6	-9	12
16	Victoria Września	14	2	6	6	-12	12
17	Lipno Stęszew	14	3	2	9	-11	11
18	Kotwica Kórnik	14	3	2	9	-18	11

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 61.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 74% and over 2.5 goals at 75%.

A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.