Hiiu Stadium · Referee K. Koppel · Analysis updated 18:53 UTC
Kalju Nomme vs FC Levadia Tallinn Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.97 expected goals for Kalju Nomme and 1.68 for FC Levadia Tallinn, a combined total of 2.65. That distribution gives FC Levadia Tallinn the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
FC Levadia Tallinn win
53.9% probability
Expected goals
0.97 – 1.68
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kalju Nomme home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
FC Levadia Tallinn away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC Levadia Tallinn to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 22% / 24% / 54% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.97 goals for Kalju Nomme and 1.68 for FC Levadia Tallinn, a combined 2.65 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
46%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
78%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–111.9%
- 1–111.5%
- 0–210.0%
- 1–29.7%
- 0–07.1%
Recent form
Kalju Nomme
- 2026-10-17T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Nõmme United · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Vaprus · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-10T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Laagri · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Tammeka · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Trans Narva · 2-0 (W)
FC Levadia Tallinn
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Kuressaare · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-15T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Flora Tallinn · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Paide · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-07T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Keila · 10-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Trans Narva · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Meistriliiga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Levadia Tallinn | 32 | 25 | 6 | 1 | 65 | 81 |
| 2 | Flora Tallinn | 33 | 19 | 1 | 13 | 16 | 58 |
| 3 | Paide | 32 | 17 | 6 | 9 | 13 | 57 |
| 4 | Kalju Nomme | 32 | 15 | 6 | 11 | 21 | 51 |
| 5 | Tammeka | 32 | 15 | 2 | 15 | -9 | 47 |
| 6 | Laagri | 33 | 15 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 47 |
| 7 | Vaprus | 32 | 10 | 6 | 16 | -20 | 36 |
| 8 | Kuressaare | 32 | 10 | 5 | 17 | -17 | 35 |
| 9 | Nõmme United | 32 | 10 | 1 | 21 | -24 | 31 |
| 10 | Trans Narva | 32 | 5 | 5 | 22 | -45 | 20 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FC Levadia Tallinn win, at 53.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.