Hiiu Stadium · Referee G. Osomkov · Analysis updated 12:10 UTC
Kalju Nomme vs Flora Tallinn Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.78 expected goals for Kalju Nomme and 1.80 for Flora Tallinn, a combined total of 3.58. That distribution gives Flora Tallinn the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
61.5% probability
Expected goals
1.78 – 1.80
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kalju Nomme home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Flora Tallinn away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.0%
- 1–28.1%
- 2–17.9%
- 2–27.1%
- 0–15.0%
Recent form
Kalju Nomme
- 2026-10-17T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Nõmme United · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Vaprus · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-10T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Laagri · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Tammeka · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Trans Narva · 2-0 (W)
Flora Tallinn
- 2026-10-21T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Laagri · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-18T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Tammeka · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-15T16:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Levadia Tallinn · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-11T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Kuressaare · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Vaprus · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · Kalju Nomme 1-2 Flora Tallinn (Meistriliiga)
- 2026-05-10T11:30:00.000Z · Kalju Nomme 0-1 Flora Tallinn (Meistriliiga)
- 2026-03-15T12:30:00.000Z · Kalju Nomme 1-0 Flora Tallinn (Meistriliiga)
- 2025-09-28T11:30:00.000Z · Kalju Nomme 3-1 Flora Tallinn (Meistriliiga)
- 2025-07-06T18:30:00.000Z · Kalju Nomme 0-1 Flora Tallinn (Meistriliiga)
- 2025-04-27T11:30:00.000Z · Kalju Nomme 3-2 Flora Tallinn (Meistriliiga)
- 2025-04-05T11:30:00.000Z · Kalju Nomme 1-2 Flora Tallinn (Meistriliiga)
- 2025-02-01T16:00:00.000Z · Kalju Nomme 0-1 Flora Tallinn (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2024-10-23T16:00:00.000Z · Kalju Nomme 2-3 Flora Tallinn (Meistriliiga)
- 2024-09-25T14:00:00.000Z · Kalju Nomme 3-0 Flora Tallinn (Meistriliiga)
Meistriliiga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Levadia Tallinn | 32 | 25 | 6 | 1 | 65 | 81 |
| 2 | Flora Tallinn | 33 | 19 | 1 | 13 | 16 | 58 |
| 3 | Paide | 32 | 17 | 6 | 9 | 13 | 57 |
| 4 | Kalju Nomme | 32 | 15 | 6 | 11 | 21 | 51 |
| 5 | Tammeka | 32 | 15 | 2 | 15 | -9 | 47 |
| 6 | Laagri | 33 | 15 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 47 |
| 7 | Vaprus | 32 | 10 | 6 | 16 | -20 | 36 |
| 8 | Kuressaare | 32 | 10 | 5 | 17 | -17 | 35 |
| 9 | Nõmme United | 32 | 10 | 1 | 21 | -24 | 31 |
| 10 | Trans Narva | 32 | 5 | 5 | 22 | -45 | 20 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 61.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.