Parnu Rannastaadion · Referee J. H. Ellefsen · Analysis updated 10:08 UTC
Kalju Nomme vs Shelbourne Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.68 expected goals for Kalju Nomme and 3.65 for Shelbourne, a combined total of 5.33. That distribution gives Shelbourne the largest share of the 1X2 market at 74%, with the draw at 13%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 89% for over 2.5 goals and 78% for both teams to score, with 1–3 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 74% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Shelbourne win
73.6% probability
Expected goals
1.68 – 3.65
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
26%
Double chance 12
87%
Double chance X2
86%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–36.6%
- 1–46.0%
- 2–35.5%
- 1–25.4%
- 2–45.1%
Why the model likes this
Most likely outcome
The model rates Shelbourne to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 74%, against 14% / 13% / 74% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.68 goals for Kalju Nomme and 3.65 for Shelbourne, a combined 5.33 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 89% and both teams to score at 78%, with 1–3 the single most likely scoreline at 7%.
Model confidence
The headline pick is rated 74% with high confidence, from a data-quality score of 70/100 while season data is still limited.
Recent form
Kalju Nomme
Shelbourne
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.