Guldfågeln Arena · Analysis updated 14:30 UTC
Kalmar FF vs Gais Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.23 expected goals for Kalmar FF and 1.40 for Gais, a combined total of 2.63. That distribution gives Gais the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
67.1% probability
Expected goals
1.23 – 1.40
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kalmar FF home form
0 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Gais away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Gais to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 33% / 26% / 41% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.23 goals for Kalmar FF and 1.40 for Gais, a combined 2.63 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
59%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.4%
- 0–110.1%
- 1–08.9%
- 1–28.7%
- 2–17.6%
Recent form
Kalmar FF
- 2026-10-06T11:00:00.000Z · A vs IFK Norrkoping · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · H vs BK Hacken · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · A vs IF Elfsborg · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-07T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Djurgardens IF · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-29T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Halmstad · 0-1 (L)
Gais
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Sirius · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Mjallby AIF · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-14T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Djurgardens IF · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · H vs BK Hacken · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-31T17:00:00.000Z · H vs IF Brommapojkarna · 4-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Allsvenskan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sirius | 23 | 17 | 3 | 3 | 25 | 54 |
| 2 | Djurgardens IF | 23 | 14 | 2 | 7 | 27 | 44 |
| 3 | Hammarby FF | 23 | 13 | 4 | 6 | 28 | 43 |
| 4 | IF Elfsborg | 23 | 11 | 7 | 5 | 13 | 40 |
| 5 | BK Hacken | 23 | 10 | 9 | 4 | 12 | 39 |
| 6 | Malmo FF | 23 | 11 | 3 | 9 | 5 | 36 |
| 7 | Vasteras SK FK | 23 | 10 | 5 | 8 | -2 | 35 |
| 8 | IFK Goteborg | 23 | 10 | 5 | 8 | -9 | 35 |
| 9 | AIK Stockholm | 23 | 9 | 6 | 8 | -4 | 33 |
| 10 | Gais | 23 | 8 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 30 |
| 11 | IF Brommapojkarna | 23 | 8 | 6 | 9 | -5 | 30 |
| 12 | Mjallby AIF | 23 | 5 | 8 | 10 | -11 | 23 |
| 13 | Degerfors IF | 23 | 5 | 5 | 13 | -15 | 20 |
| 14 | Kalmar FF | 23 | 5 | 4 | 14 | -16 | 19 |
| 15 | Orgryte IS | 23 | 3 | 6 | 14 | -27 | 15 |
| 16 | Halmstad | 23 | 3 | 5 | 15 | -28 | 14 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.