Orbita stadium · Analysis updated 12:13 UTC
Kaluga vs Alaniya Vladikavkaz Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.80 expected goals for Kaluga and 1.28 for Alaniya Vladikavkaz, a combined total of 2.08. That distribution gives Alaniya Vladikavkaz the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Alaniya Vladikavkaz win
47.6% probability
Expected goals
0.80 – 1.28
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kaluga home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Alaniya Vladikavkaz away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Alaniya Vladikavkaz to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 23% / 29% / 48% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.80 goals for Kaluga and 1.28 for Alaniya Vladikavkaz, a combined 2.08 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
52%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
77%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–116.0%
- 1–112.8%
- 0–012.6%
- 0–210.2%
- 1–010.0%
Recent form
Kaluga
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Bryansk · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-14T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Enisey · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Mashuk-KMV · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-04T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Rodina Moskva II · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Kirov · 1-2 (L)
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
- 2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Bryansk · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Novosibirsk · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-06T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Vladivostok · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-30T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Kaluga · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-22T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Mashuk-KMV · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-30T11:00:00.000Z · Kaluga 1-1 Alaniya Vladikavkaz (Second League A - Division A Gold)
Second League A - Division A Gold table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dinamo Kirov | 15 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 30 |
| 2 | Rodina Moskva II | 15 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 30 |
| 3 | Alaniya Vladikavkaz | 15 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 22 |
| 4 | Novosibirsk | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | -2 | 20 |
| 5 | Dinamo Bryansk | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | -7 | 19 |
| 6 | Dinamo Vladivostok | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 18 |
| 7 | Mashuk-KMV | 15 | 2 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 17 |
| 8 | Volgar Astrakhan | 15 | 1 | 11 | 3 | -2 | 14 |
| 9 | FK Sokol Saratov | 15 | 2 | 7 | 6 | -9 | 13 |
| 10 | Kaluga | 15 | 1 | 7 | 7 | -8 | 10 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Alaniya Vladikavkaz win, at 47.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 34%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.