Orbita stadium · Analysis updated 14:01 UTC
Kaluga vs Dinamo Bryansk Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.84 expected goals for Kaluga and 1.05 for Dinamo Bryansk, a combined total of 1.89. That distribution gives Dinamo Bryansk the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 29% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
71.4% probability
Expected goals
0.84 – 1.05
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kaluga home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Dinamo Bryansk away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Dinamo Bryansk to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 29% / 32% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.84 goals for Kaluga and 1.05 for Dinamo Bryansk, a combined 1.89 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
60%
Double chance 12
68%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–115.9%
- 0–015.1%
- 1–113.3%
- 1–012.7%
- 0–28.3%
Recent form
Kaluga
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Bryansk · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-14T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Enisey · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Mashuk-KMV · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-04T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Rodina Moskva II · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Kirov · 1-2 (L)
Dinamo Bryansk
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Rodina Moskva II · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Novosibirsk · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Vladivostok · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Alaniya Vladikavkaz · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Kirov · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Second League A - Division A Gold table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rodina Moskva II | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 26 |
| 2 | Dinamo Kirov | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 24 |
| 3 | Novosibirsk | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 18 |
| 4 | Dinamo Bryansk | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | -4 | 16 |
| 5 | Alaniya Vladikavkaz | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 15 |
| 6 | Dinamo Vladivostok | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | -1 | 14 |
| 7 | Mashuk-KMV | 12 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 14 |
| 8 | Volgar Astrakhan | 12 | 1 | 9 | 2 | -1 | 12 |
| 9 | FK Sokol Saratov | 12 | 1 | 6 | 5 | -9 | 9 |
| 10 | Kaluga | 12 | 0 | 6 | 6 | -10 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 71.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 37% and over 2.5 goals at 29%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.