Orbita stadium · Analysis updated 15:46 UTC
Kaluga vs Mashuk-KMV Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.78 expected goals for Kaluga and 1.15 for Mashuk-KMV, a combined total of 1.92. That distribution gives Mashuk-KMV the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 30% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
75.3% probability
Expected goals
0.78 – 1.15
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kaluga home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Mashuk-KMV away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Mashuk-KMV to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 25% / 31% / 45% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.78 goals for Kaluga and 1.15 for Mashuk-KMV, a combined 1.92 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
56%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
75%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–116.8%
- 0–014.6%
- 1–113.0%
- 1–011.3%
- 0–29.6%
Recent form
Kaluga
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Bryansk · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-14T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Enisey · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Mashuk-KMV · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-04T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Rodina Moskva II · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Kirov · 1-2 (L)
Mashuk-KMV
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Kirov · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Sokol Saratov · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-21T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Volgar Astrakhan · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Rodina Moskva II · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Novosibirsk · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Second League A - Division A Gold table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dinamo Kirov | 15 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 30 |
| 2 | Rodina Moskva II | 15 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 30 |
| 3 | Alaniya Vladikavkaz | 15 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 22 |
| 4 | Novosibirsk | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | -2 | 20 |
| 5 | Dinamo Bryansk | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | -7 | 19 |
| 6 | Dinamo Vladivostok | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 18 |
| 7 | Mashuk-KMV | 15 | 2 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 17 |
| 8 | Volgar Astrakhan | 15 | 1 | 11 | 3 | -2 | 14 |
| 9 | FK Sokol Saratov | 15 | 2 | 7 | 6 | -9 | 13 |
| 10 | Kaluga | 15 | 1 | 7 | 7 | -8 | 10 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 75.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 37% and over 2.5 goals at 30%.
A 75% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.