KAMAZ vs Tekstilshchik Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.47 expected goals for KAMAZ and 0.89 for Tekstilshchik, a combined total of 2.36. That distribution gives KAMAZ the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

KAMAZ win

50.7% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.47 – 0.89

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

KAMAZ home form
1 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Tekstilshchik away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates KAMAZ to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 27% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.47 goals for KAMAZ and 0.89 for Tekstilshchik, a combined 2.36 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

KAMAZ win51%

Draw27%

Tekstilshchik win23%

Double chance 1X

77%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

49%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals68%

Over 2.5 goals42%

Over 3.5 goals21%

Both teams to score45%

Correct score

1–013.9%
1–112.4%
2–010.2%
0–09.4%
2–19.1%

Recent form

KAMAZ

2026-09-18T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Shinnik Yaroslavl · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-14T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Chelyabinsk · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-09T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Kirov · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-06T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Ural · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-29T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Leningradets · 1-0 (W)

Tekstilshchik

2026-09-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Rotor Volgograd · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Leningradets · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-08T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Arsenal Tula · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-04T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Torpedo Moskva · 1-4 (L)
2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Veles · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

First League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Nizhny Novgorod	13	11	1	1	27	34
2	FC Sochi	13	8	2	3	8	26
3	Veles	14	8	2	4	2	26
4	Ural	13	7	4	2	13	25
5	Torpedo Moskva	13	7	3	3	14	24
6	Spartak Kostroma	13	7	3	3	5	24
7	Shinnik Yaroslavl	13	4	7	2	4	19
8	Rotor Volgograd	13	5	3	5	6	18
9	FC UFA	13	4	6	3	2	18
10	Arsenal Tula	13	4	4	5	-9	16
11	Volga Ulyanovsk	14	4	3	7	-3	15
12	Chelyabinsk	13	4	3	6	-4	15
13	Enisey	13	3	5	5	-10	14
14	Leningradets	13	3	4	6	-12	13
15	FK Neftekhimik	13	4	0	9	-10	12
16	KAMAZ	13	2	4	7	-8	10
17	Ska-khabarovsk	13	1	4	8	-12	7
18	Tekstilshchik	13	1	4	8	-13	7

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is KAMAZ win, at 50.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.

A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.