KAMAZ Stadium · Analysis updated 12:05 UTC
KAMAZ vs Torpedo Moskva Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.73 expected goals for KAMAZ and 1.85 for Torpedo Moskva, a combined total of 2.58. That distribution gives Torpedo Moskva the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Torpedo Moskva win
64.2% probability
Expected goals
0.73 – 1.85
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
KAMAZ home form
1 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Torpedo Moskva away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Torpedo Moskva to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 64%, against 14% / 22% / 64% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.73 goals for KAMAZ and 1.85 for Torpedo Moskva, a combined 2.58 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
36%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
86%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–114.1%
- 0–213.0%
- 1–110.2%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–38.0%
Recent form
KAMAZ
- 2026-09-18T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Shinnik Yaroslavl · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-14T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Chelyabinsk · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-09T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Kirov · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Ural · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-29T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Leningradets · 1-0 (W)
Torpedo Moskva
- 2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Torpedo Zhodino · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T09:30:00.000Z · A vs FC UFA · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-17T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Veles · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Nizhny Novgorod · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-10T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Shinnik Yaroslavl · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nizhny Novgorod | 15 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 29 | 40 |
| 2 | FC Sochi | 15 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 32 |
| 3 | Torpedo Moskva | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 28 |
| 4 | Spartak Kostroma | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 27 |
| 5 | Veles | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 27 |
| 6 | Ural | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 25 |
| 7 | FC UFA | 15 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 21 |
| 8 | Shinnik Yaroslavl | 14 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 20 |
| 9 | Rotor Volgograd | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 19 |
| 10 | Arsenal Tula | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | -10 | 19 |
| 11 | Volga Ulyanovsk | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | -2 | 18 |
| 12 | Chelyabinsk | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -5 | 15 |
| 13 | Enisey | 15 | 3 | 5 | 7 | -14 | 14 |
| 14 | KAMAZ | 15 | 3 | 4 | 8 | -8 | 13 |
| 15 | Leningradets | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -14 | 13 |
| 16 | FK Neftekhimik | 14 | 4 | 0 | 10 | -11 | 12 |
| 17 | Ska-khabarovsk | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | -10 | 10 |
| 18 | Tekstilshchik | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | -14 | 10 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Torpedo Moskva win, at 64.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.