· Analysis updated 23:49 UTC
Kamjani vs Novaci Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.33 expected goals for Kamjani and 0.77 for Novaci, a combined total of 2.10. That distribution gives Kamjani the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 35% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Kamjani win
49.7% probability
Expected goals
1.33 – 0.77
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kamjani home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Novaci away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kamjani to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 28% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.33 goals for Kamjani and 0.77 for Novaci, a combined 2.10 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–016.2%
- 1–112.6%
- 0–012.2%
- 2–010.7%
- 0–19.5%
Recent form
Kamjani
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Rabotnicki · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Shkendija · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T13:45:00.000Z · H vs Detonit Plachkovica · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Makedonija GjP · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Novaci · 1-0 (W)
Novaci
- 2026-09-19T13:45:00.000Z · A vs Kozuv Gevgelija · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Detonit Plachkovica · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-09T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ohrid · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Kamjani · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-29T14:45:00.000Z · A vs Osogovo · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Second League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ohrid | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 22 |
| 2 | Pelister | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 13 | 21 |
| 3 | FK Rabotnicki | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 18 |
| 4 | Akademija Pandev | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 15 |
| 5 | Kamjani | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 14 |
| 6 | Teteks | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 | Belasica | 9 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 13 |
| 8 | Makedonija GjP | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 11 |
| 9 | Kozuv Gevgelija | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -5 | 10 |
| 10 | Detonit Plachkovica | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 9 |
| 11 | Novaci | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 8 |
| 12 | Gorno Lisiče | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -1 | 7 |
| 13 | Osogovo | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -5 | 6 |
| 14 | Shkupi 1927 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 9 | -28 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Kamjani win, at 49.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 35%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.