Ishikawa Athletics Stadium · Analysis updated 06:40 UTC
Kanazawa vs Shimizu S-pulse Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.93 expected goals for Kanazawa and 1.57 for Shimizu S-pulse, a combined total of 2.50. That distribution gives Shimizu S-pulse the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Shimizu S-pulse win
52.3% probability
Expected goals
0.93 – 1.57
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kanazawa home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Shimizu S-pulse away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 6 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
48%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
78%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–112.9%
- 1–112.0%
- 0–210.1%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–08.2%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 13.5%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.15 (model 52.1% vs market 42.7%, edge +9.4 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.15 | 42.7% | 52.1% | 1.92 | +9.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 2.05 | 45.7% | 47.6% | 2.10 | +1.9 |
| Match result | Home | 4.00 | 22.0% | 22.3% | 4.48 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.50 | 25.2% | 25.3% | 3.95 | +0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 74.9% | 74.6% | 1.34 | -0.3 |
| Match result | Away | 1.67 | 52.8% | 52.3% | 1.91 | -0.5 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.18 | 79.4% | 77.6% | 1.29 | -1.8 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.60 | 57.3% | 47.9% | 2.09 | -9.4 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Kanazawa
- 2026-09-26T04:00:00.000Z · H vs Gainare Tottori · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T04:00:00.000Z · H vs Renofa Yamaguchi · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Kochi United · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T09:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Gifu · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-02T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Imabari · 2-1 (W)
Shimizu S-pulse
- 2026-09-29T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Kanazawa · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T09:30:00.000Z · H vs JEF United Chiba · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Avispa Fukuoka · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Kawasaki Frontale · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-02T10:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Tokyo · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-29T10:00:00.000Z · Kanazawa 0-2 Shimizu S-pulse (J-League Cup)
- 2023-09-17T09:00:00.000Z · Kanazawa 0-3 Shimizu S-pulse (J2 League)
- 2023-05-28T05:00:00.000Z · Kanazawa 0-3 Shimizu S-pulse (J2 League)
- 2016-10-16T07:00:00.000Z · Kanazawa 0-3 Shimizu S-pulse (J2 League)
- 2016-04-29T08:00:00.000Z · Kanazawa 1-4 Shimizu S-pulse (J2 League)
- 2013-10-14T06:00:00.000Z · Kanazawa 2-3 Shimizu S-pulse (Emperor Cup)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Shimizu S-pulse win, at 52.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.