Kanchanaburi Province Stadium · Analysis updated 22:02 UTC
Kanchanaburi vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.78 expected goals for Kanchanaburi and 1.26 for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, a combined total of 3.04. That distribution gives Kanchanaburi the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Kanchanaburi win
49.5% probability
Expected goals
1.78 – 1.26
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kanchanaburi home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kanchanaburi to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 23% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.78 goals for Kanchanaburi and 1.26 for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, a combined 3.04 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.7%
- 2–19.5%
- 1–08.5%
- 2–07.6%
- 1–26.8%
Recent form
Kanchanaburi
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Mahasarakham United · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-16T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Nakhon Pathom · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Chanthaburi · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-06T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Satun · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-05-10T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Ratchaburi · 0-1 (L)
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
- 2026-10-25T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Esan Pattaya · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Phrae United · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Muang Loei United · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-10T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Police Tero · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Chainat · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Thai League 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Khon Kaen United | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 18 |
| 2 | Uttaradit | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 15 |
| 3 | Nong Bua Pitchaya | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 14 |
| 4 | Satun | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 14 |
| 5 | Kanchanaburi | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 6 | Chainat | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 13 |
| 7 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 8 | Chiangmai United | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | Phrae United | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Muangthong United | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 11 | Chanthaburi | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 10 |
| 12 | Police Tero | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 10 |
| 13 | Nakhon Pathom | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -3 | 10 |
| 14 | Muang Loei United | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 15 | Esan Pattaya | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 8 |
| 16 | Songkhla | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 17 | Mahasarakham United | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
| 18 | Kasetsart FC | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Kanchanaburi win, at 49.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.