Kansas City W vs Bay FC W Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.67 expected goals for Kansas City W and 1.08 for Bay FC W, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Kansas City W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Kansas City W win

51.4% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.67 – 1.08

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Kansas City W home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bay FC W away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kansas City W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 24% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.67 goals for Kansas City W and 1.08 for Bay FC W, a combined 2.75 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Kansas City W win51%

Draw24%

Bay FC W win24%

Double chance 1X

76%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

49%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals76%

Over 2.5 goals52%

Over 3.5 goals30%

Both teams to score54%

Correct score

1–111.5%
1–010.7%
2–19.6%
2–09.0%
0–16.9%

Recent form

Kansas City W

2026-10-17T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Utah Royals W · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-03T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Bay FC W · 5-1 (W)
2026-09-26T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Denver Summit W · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-19T02:10:00.000Z · A vs San Diego Wave W · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-12T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Orlando Pride W · 2-2 (D)

Bay FC W

2026-10-25T00:45:00.000Z · A vs Angel City W · 0-2 (L)
2026-10-18T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Portland Thorns W · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-03T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Kansas City W · 1-5 (L)
2026-09-27T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Orlando Pride W · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-20T23:05:00.000Z · H vs Racing Louisville W · 2-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

NWSL Women table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	NJ/NY Gotham FC W	28	16	7	5	13	55
2	San Diego Wave W	28	17	3	8	13	54
3	Washington Spirit W	28	16	4	8	14	52
4	Angel City W	29	14	7	8	19	49
5	Kansas City W	28	14	5	9	12	47
6	Utah Royals W	29	14	5	10	7	47
7	Portland Thorns W	29	13	8	8	7	47
8	Seattle Reign FC W	29	13	5	11	3	44
9	North Carolina Courage W	29	13	3	13	9	42
10	Denver Summit W	29	11	8	10	12	41
11	Orlando Pride W	28	11	3	14	-6	36
12	Houston Dash W	29	9	6	14	-4	33
13	Boston Legacy W	28	9	5	14	-9	32
14	Bay FC W	29	7	6	16	-16	27
15	Racing Louisville W	29	7	3	19	-22	24
16	Chicago Red Stars W	29	5	2	22	-52	17

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Kansas City W win, at 51.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.

A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.