Kansas City W vs Washington Spirit W Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.83 expected goals for Kansas City W and 1.33 for Washington Spirit W, a combined total of 3.15. That distribution gives Kansas City W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Kansas City W win

49.2% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.83 – 1.33

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Kansas City W home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Washington Spirit W away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Kansas City W win49%

Draw23%

Washington Spirit W win28%

Double chance 1X

72%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

51%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals82%

Over 2.5 goals61%

Over 3.5 goals39%

Both teams to score62%

Correct score

1–110.4%
2–19.5%
1–07.8%
2–07.1%
1–26.9%

Recent form

Kansas City W

2026-10-25T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Washington Spirit W · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-17T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Utah Royals W · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-03T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Bay FC W · 5-1 (W)
2026-09-26T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Denver Summit W · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-19T02:10:00.000Z · A vs San Diego Wave W · 0-2 (L)

Washington Spirit W

2026-10-25T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Kansas City W · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-17T16:30:00.000Z · H vs NJ/NY Gotham FC W · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-04T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Houston Dash W · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-26T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Angel City W · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-20T21:05:00.000Z · A vs Chicago Red Stars W · 3-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-10-25T21:00:00.000Z · Kansas City W 2-1 Washington Spirit W (NWSL Women)
2026-04-25T00:00:00.000Z · Kansas City W 0-4 Washington Spirit W (NWSL Women)
2025-09-13T23:30:00.000Z · Kansas City W 0-0 Washington Spirit W (NWSL Women)
2025-03-22T23:30:00.000Z · Kansas City W 2-0 Washington Spirit W (NWSL Women)
2024-09-21T00:00:00.000Z · Kansas City W 3-0 Washington Spirit W (NWSL Women)
2024-08-25T16:00:00.000Z · Kansas City W 1-4 Washington Spirit W (NWSL Women)
2023-09-30T23:00:00.000Z · Kansas City W 1-2 Washington Spirit W (NWSL Women)
2023-06-18T23:00:00.000Z · Kansas City W 2-3 Washington Spirit W (NWSL Women)
2022-09-25T21:00:00.000Z · Kansas City W 3-0 Washington Spirit W (NWSL Women)
2022-07-10T21:00:00.000Z · Kansas City W 1-0 Washington Spirit W (NWSL Women)

NWSL Women table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	NJ/NY Gotham FC W	29	17	7	5	14	58
2	San Diego Wave W	29	17	4	8	13	55
3	Washington Spirit W	29	16	4	9	13	52
4	Kansas City W	29	15	5	9	13	50
5	Angel City W	29	14	7	8	19	49
6	Utah Royals W	29	14	5	10	7	47
7	Portland Thorns W	29	13	8	8	7	47
8	Seattle Reign FC W	29	13	5	11	3	44
9	North Carolina Courage W	29	13	3	13	9	42
10	Denver Summit W	29	11	8	10	12	41
11	Orlando Pride W	29	11	3	15	-7	36
12	Houston Dash W	29	9	6	14	-4	33
13	Boston Legacy W	29	9	6	14	-9	33
14	Bay FC W	29	7	6	16	-16	27
15	Racing Louisville W	29	7	3	19	-22	24
16	Chicago Red Stars W	29	5	2	22	-52	17

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Kansas City W win, at 49.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.

A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.