Markku.fi Areena · Referee J. Nieminen · Analysis updated 10:51 UTC
KäPa vs MP Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.38 expected goals for KäPa and 1.45 for MP, a combined total of 2.83. That distribution gives MP the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
64.2% probability
Expected goals
1.38 – 1.45
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
KäPa home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
MP away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.8%
- 0–18.6%
- 1–28.6%
- 1–08.2%
- 2–18.1%
Recent form
KäPa
- 2026-10-22T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Rops · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs EIF · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-09T16:00:00.000Z · H vs MP · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-25T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Haka · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs SJK Akatemia · 3-2 (W)
MP
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs JäPS · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-09T16:00:00.000Z · A vs KäPa · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-25T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Kooteepee · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs JIPPO · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs SJK Akatemia · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-10-09T16:00:00.000Z · KäPa 1-1 MP (Ykkösliiga)
- 2026-07-29T15:30:00.000Z · KäPa 1-2 MP (Ykkösliiga)
- 2026-04-19T13:00:00.000Z · KäPa 1-0 MP (Ykkösliiga)
- 2024-09-14T13:00:00.000Z · KäPa 3-2 MP (Ykkösliiga)
- 2024-07-11T16:00:00.000Z · KäPa 6-2 MP (Ykkösliiga)
- 2024-05-12T15:30:00.000Z · KäPa 4-0 MP (Ykkösliiga)
- 2023-06-28T15:30:00.000Z · KäPa 2-6 MP (Ykkönen)
- 2023-04-16T15:00:00.000Z · KäPa 2-0 MP (Ykkönen)
- 2016-08-26T16:00:00.000Z · KäPa 3-2 MP (Kakkonen - Lohko A)
- 2016-06-12T15:30:00.000Z · KäPa 1-1 MP (Kakkonen - Lohko A)
Ykkösliiga table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 64.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.