Markku.fi Areena · Referee A. Hajizadeh · Analysis updated 07:14 UTC
KäPa vs PK-35 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.55 expected goals for KäPa and 1.75 for PK-35, a combined total of 2.30. That distribution gives PK-35 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 67%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 35% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 67% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
PK-35 win
66.6% probability
Expected goals
0.55 – 1.75
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
KäPa home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
PK-35 away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates PK-35 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 67%, against 11% / 22% / 67% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.55 goals for KäPa and 1.75 for PK-35, a combined 2.30 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
33%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
89%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–117.5%
- 0–215.4%
- 0–010.0%
- 1–19.6%
- 0–39.0%
Recent form
KäPa
- 2026-09-25T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Haka · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs SJK Akatemia · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs PK-35 · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-07T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Klubi-04 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-28T15:30:00.000Z · A vs JäPS · 0-0 (D)
PK-35
- 2026-10-09T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Haka · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs JIPPO · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Kooteepee · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs KäPa · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-04T16:00:00.000Z · H vs EIF · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Ykkösliiga table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is PK-35 win, at 66.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 35% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.