Ganja City Stadium · Analysis updated 23:05 UTC
Kapaz vs Imisli FK Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.40 expected goals for Kapaz and 1.18 for Imisli FK, a combined total of 2.58. That distribution gives Kapaz the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
68.4% probability
Expected goals
1.40 – 1.18
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kapaz home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Imisli FK away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 1 of the last 8 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.5%
- 1–010.7%
- 0–18.9%
- 2–18.8%
- 0–07.6%
Recent form
Kapaz
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Sumqayıt · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Qabala · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-04T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Şamaxı FK · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-08-30T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Turan · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-15T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Sabah FA · 0-2 (L)
Imisli FK
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Qarabag · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T15:45:00.000Z · A vs Sabah FA · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-11T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Neftchi Baku · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-04T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Qabala · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-29T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Safa Baku · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-19T11:30:00.000Z · Kapaz 0-1 Imisli FK (Premyer Liqa)
- 2026-02-09T10:30:00.000Z · Kapaz 0-0 Imisli FK (Premyer Liqa)
- 2025-10-24T13:00:00.000Z · Kapaz 0-3 Imisli FK (Premyer Liqa)
- 2024-12-04T12:00:00.000Z · Kapaz 1-0 Imisli FK (Cup)
- 2015-03-22T11:00:00.000Z · Kapaz 0-3 Imisli FK (Birinci Dasta)
- 2014-10-09T10:00:00.000Z · Kapaz 3-0 Imisli FK (Birinci Dasta)
- 2014-02-08T10:00:00.000Z · Kapaz 2-0 Imisli FK (Birinci Dasta)
- 2013-11-09T11:00:00.000Z · Kapaz 1-2 Imisli FK (Birinci Dasta)
Premyer Liqa table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.