Ganja City Stadium · Referee T. Qurbanov · Analysis updated 13:43 UTC
Kapaz vs Qabala Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.88 expected goals for Kapaz and 1.25 for Qabala, a combined total of 2.13. That distribution gives Qabala the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Qabala win
45.0% probability
Expected goals
0.88 – 1.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kapaz home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Qabala to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 26% / 29% / 45% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.88 goals for Kapaz and 1.25 for Qabala, a combined 2.13 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 36% and both teams to score at 42%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
55%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
74%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–114.9%
- 1–113.1%
- 0–011.9%
- 1–010.5%
- 0–29.3%
Recent form
Kapaz
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Sumqayıt · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Qabala · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-04T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Şamaxı FK · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-08-30T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Turan · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-15T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Sabah FA · 0-2 (L)
Qabala
- 2026-09-18T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Neftchi Baku · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Kapaz · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-04T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Imisli FK · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Şamaxı FK · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-22T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Safa Baku · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premyer Liqa table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Qabala win, at 45.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.