· Analysis updated 12:34 UTC
Kaposvar vs PTE-PEAC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.54 expected goals for Kaposvar and 1.16 for PTE-PEAC, a combined total of 3.70. That distribution gives Kaposvar the largest share of the 1X2 market at 67%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 67% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Kaposvar win
67.2% probability
Expected goals
2.54 – 1.16
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kaposvar home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
PTE-PEAC away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kaposvar to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 67%, against 67% / 17% / 16% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.54 goals for Kaposvar and 1.16 for PTE-PEAC, a combined 3.70 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
33%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.2%
- 2–07.9%
- 3–17.8%
- 1–17.3%
- 3–06.7%
Recent form
Kaposvar
- 2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Sárbogárd · 7-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Iváncsa · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Érdi VSE · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ferencváros II · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Majosi · 1-4 (L)
PTE-PEAC
- 2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Érdi VSE · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Ferencváros II · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Majosi · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Pécsi MFC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dunaharaszti MTK · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
NB III - Southwest table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pécsi MFC | 13 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 36 | 37 |
| 2 | Kaposvar | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 25 |
| 3 | Ferencváros II | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 21 |
| 4 | Iváncsa | 12 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 21 |
| 5 | Majosi | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 21 |
| 6 | Dunaharaszti MTK | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 20 |
| 7 | Budafoki LC | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 18 |
| 8 | Siofok | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 17 |
| 9 | Érdi VSE | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 16 |
| 10 | PTE-PEAC | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 16 |
| 11 | MTK Budapest II | 11 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 15 |
| 12 | Budaörs | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -19 | 12 |
| 13 | Paksi SE II | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 10 |
| 14 | Sárbogárd | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | -28 | 5 |
| 15 | Szekszárd | 12 | 0 | 0 | 12 | -41 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Kaposvar win, at 67.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.