· Analysis updated 09:56 UTC
Kaposvar vs Sárbogárd Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.73 expected goals for Kaposvar and 0.82 for Sárbogárd, a combined total of 4.55. That distribution gives Kaposvar the largest share of the 1X2 market at 88%, with the draw at 8%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 82% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 88% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Kaposvar win
87.8% probability
Expected goals
3.73 – 0.82
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kaposvar home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sárbogárd away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kaposvar to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 88%, against 88% / 8% / 4% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.73 goals for Kaposvar and 0.82 for Sárbogárd, a combined 4.55 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
96%
Double chance 12
92%
Double chance X2
12%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–09.1%
- 4–08.5%
- 3–17.5%
- 2–07.3%
- 4–17.0%
Recent form
Kaposvar
- 2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Sárbogárd · 7-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Iváncsa · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Érdi VSE · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ferencváros II · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Majosi · 1-4 (L)
Sárbogárd
- 2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Kaposvar · 0-7 (L)
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Iváncsa · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Budaörs · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Érdi VSE · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Szekszárd · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
NB III - Southwest table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pécsi MFC | 12 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 30 | 34 |
| 2 | Kaposvar | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 22 |
| 3 | Ferencváros II | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 21 |
| 4 | Dunaharaszti MTK | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 20 |
| 5 | Iváncsa | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 18 |
| 6 | Majosi | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 18 |
| 7 | Budafoki LC | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 17 |
| 8 | PTE-PEAC | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 16 |
| 9 | MTK Budapest II | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 15 |
| 10 | Érdi VSE | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 15 |
| 11 | Siofok | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 14 |
| 12 | Budaörs | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -13 | 12 |
| 13 | Paksi SE II | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | -4 | 7 |
| 14 | Sárbogárd | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | -22 | 5 |
| 15 | Szekszárd | 11 | 0 | 0 | 11 | -40 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Kaposvar win, at 87.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 82%.
A 88% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.