· Analysis updated 14:34 UTC
Kaposvar vs Szekszárd Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 4.50 expected goals for Kaposvar and 0.79 for Szekszárd, a combined total of 5.29. That distribution gives Kaposvar the largest share of the 1X2 market at 93%, with the draw at 5%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 86% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 4–0 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 93% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Kaposvar win
92.8% probability
Expected goals
4.50 – 0.79
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kaposvar home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Szekszárd away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kaposvar to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 93%, against 93% / 5% / 2% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 4.50 goals for Kaposvar and 0.79 for Szekszárd, a combined 5.29 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
98%
Double chance 12
95%
Double chance X2
7%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 4–08.7%
- 5–07.8%
- 3–07.7%
- 4–16.8%
- 5–16.1%
Recent form
Kaposvar
- 2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Iváncsa · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Érdi VSE · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ferencváros II · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Majosi · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Hatvan · 4-1 (W)
Szekszárd
- 2026-10-03T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Paksi SE II · 1-8 (L)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Budaörs · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sárbogárd · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-29T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Siofok · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-26T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Budafoki LC · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
NB III - Southwest table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pécsi MFC | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 26 | 28 |
| 2 | Kaposvar | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 16 |
| 3 | PTE-PEAC | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 16 |
| 4 | Budafoki LC | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 16 |
| 5 | Ferencváros II | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 15 |
| 6 | Iváncsa | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 15 |
| 7 | Siofok | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 14 |
| 8 | Majosi | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 14 |
| 9 | Dunaharaszti MTK | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 14 |
| 10 | MTK Budapest II | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 12 |
| 11 | Érdi VSE | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 12 | Budaörs | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 11 |
| 13 | Paksi SE II | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -4 | 6 |
| 14 | Sárbogárd | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -15 | 5 |
| 15 | Szekszárd | 9 | 0 | 0 | 9 | -34 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Kaposvar win, at 92.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 4–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 86%.
A 93% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.