· Analysis updated 10:07 UTC
Karbon Cherkasy vs Trostianets Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.40 expected goals for Karbon Cherkasy and 1.10 for Trostianets, a combined total of 2.50. That distribution gives Karbon Cherkasy the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
70.4% probability
Expected goals
1.40 – 1.10
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Karbon Cherkasy home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Trostianets away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Karbon Cherkasy to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 27% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.40 goals for Karbon Cherkasy and 1.10 for Trostianets, a combined 2.50 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.6%
- 1–011.5%
- 0–19.0%
- 2–18.8%
- 0–08.2%
Recent form
Karbon Cherkasy
- 2026-09-25T10:00:00.000Z · H vs SC Poltava 2 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Oleksandria II · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Atlet · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-09T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-04T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Lozova · 1-0 (W)
Trostianets
- 2026-10-24T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlet · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-17T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Lozova · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-12T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Oleksandria II · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-06T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Chernihiv · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-27T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Rebel · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Druha Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bratslav Vinnytsia | 11 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 17 | 25 |
| 1 | Karbon Cherkasy | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 18 |
| 2 | Dnister Zalishchyky | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 21 |
| 2 | Lozova | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 16 |
| 3 | Nyva Vinnytsya | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 20 |
| 3 | Rebel | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 14 |
| 4 | Vilkhivtsi | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | -2 | 14 |
| 4 | SC Poltava 2 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -2 | 14 |
| 5 | Podillya Khmelnytskyi | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 13 |
| 5 | Trostianets | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 6 | Nyva Ternopil II | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 12 |
| 6 | Atlet | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 13 |
| 7 | Skala 1911 Stryi | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -4 | 11 |
| 7 | Oleksandria II | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 13 |
| 8 | Dinaz Vyshhorod | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | -10 | 8 |
| 8 | Metalurh Zaporizhya | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 12 |
| 9 | Ruh Lviv | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -3 | 5 |
| 9 | Penuel | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -17 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 70.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.