Kariba vs Ngezi Platinum Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.80 expected goals for Kariba and 0.93 for Ngezi Platinum, a combined total of 1.73. That distribution gives Ngezi Platinum the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 34%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 25% for over 2.5 goals and 33% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

70.3% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

0.80 – 0.93

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Kariba home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ngezi Platinum away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ngezi Platinum to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 37%, against 30% / 34% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.80 goals for Kariba and 0.93 for Ngezi Platinum, a combined 1.73 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Kariba win30%

Draw34%

Ngezi Platinum win37%

Double chance 1X

63%

Double chance 12

66%

Double chance X2

70%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals51%

Over 2.5 goals25%

Over 3.5 goals10%

Both teams to score33%

Correct score

0–017.8%
0–116.5%
1–014.3%
1–113.2%
0–27.6%

Recent form

Kariba

2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Platinum · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Simba Bhora · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-22T13:00:00.000Z · A vs MWOS · 1-4 (L)
2026-08-01T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Dynamos · 0-0 (D)
2026-07-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Bulawayo Chiefs · 0-1 (L)

Ngezi Platinum

2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Hunters · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-23T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Manica Diamonds · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-01T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Agama · 1-0 (W)
2026-07-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Hardrock · 1-2 (L)
2026-07-23T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Triangle United · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Premier Soccer League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Hardrock	31	20	6	5	35	66
2	Scotland Mabvuku	30	17	10	3	34	61
3	Ngezi Platinum	32	14	14	4	13	56
4	Dynamos	32	12	16	4	17	52
5	CAPS United	31	13	12	6	11	51
6	Herentals	32	14	6	12	-1	48
7	MWOS	31	11	12	8	10	45
8	Highlanders	31	9	16	6	4	43
9	Platinum	32	9	16	7	0	43
10	Chicken Inn	31	11	10	10	-1	43
11	Simba Bhora	31	9	12	10	0	39
12	Hunters	31	7	14	10	-10	35
13	Kariba	32	6	15	11	-9	33
14	Bulawayo Chiefs	31	7	10	14	-12	31
15	Agama	31	7	7	17	-21	28
16	Triangle United	31	5	9	17	-17	24
17	TelOne	31	4	10	17	-23	22
18	Manica Diamonds	31	4	9	18	-30	21

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 70.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 33% and over 2.5 goals at 25%.

A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.